About nfelo
Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.
What is nfelo?
nfelo is a predictive model for NFL games that combines 538’s Elo rating system with research-driven modifications to create a model tailored specifically to the NFL—hence the name nfelo (NFL + Elo).
Mechanically, the nfelo model enhances the traditional Elo approach by incorporating:
- Advanced statistical adjustments for home field advantage, rest days, and weather conditions
- Quarterback-specific models that account for individual player performance and injuries
- Real-time market analysis to identify value in betting lines and spreads
- Historical performance data spanning multiple seasons for robust predictions
This site serves as a front-end application for exploring the model and its output, featuring game predictions, power rankings, QB analytics, and expected value calculations for informed wagering decisions.
Power Rankings
Real-time NFL team ratings
Game Predictions
Win probabilities & spreads
Betting Analytics
Expected value analysis
Data Sources & Technology
The nfelo model combines open-source NFL data with custom models and datasets to deliver more accurate predictions and insights.
nfelo is built on the foundation of nflfastR and the broader nflverse ecosystem—-an open-source community that provides cleaned NFL data to researchers, analysts, and fans.
nflverse data includes play-by-play information for all games dating back to 1999, advanced models like EPA, CPOE, and Win Probability, game results and schedules, team and player metadata, and more. This data is openly available on Github.
nflverse Data
Play-by-play data, player statistics, rosters, advanced metrics, and historical records maintained by the open-source community.
View nflverse-data repositorynfelo builds on top of the open-source nflverse dataset with additional models, datasets, and infrastructure to translate raw data into power rankings, predictions, analytics tools, and more.
Like nflverse, nfelo is open-source. All the code needed to reproduce nfelo’s power rankings and predictions is available on Github, meaning anyone can run, vet, explore, and extend the model themselves.
Real-time status of the repositories powering the nfelo platform
NFL power ranking and prediction model based on 538's Elo framework
NFL season • Expected every 2 days
Automated Update
v4.0.0
QB performance model based on 538's QB Elo methodology
NFL season • Expected every 7 days
automatic update
Expected Points Added, weighted to enhance team performance predictions
NFL season • Expected every 7 days
Automated Update - Week 18, 2025
A series of SRS based models for pre-season and in-season implied team strength
NFL season • Expected every 7 days
Automated Update - Week 15, 2025
Home field advantage model that considers long term trends and contextual factors
NFL season • Expected every 7 days
automatic update
A model that translates film grades into predicted margin of victory
NFL season • Expected every 7 days
automatic update
Betting market data collection and processing pipeline
NFL season • Expected every 1 days
automatic update
Automated Update
automatic update