Team Rankings and Stats

nfelo Power Rankings, Team Tendencies, EPA Tiers, and Grade Comparisons

nfelo
Spread Value
Wins
Points
Offensive EPA
Defensive EPA
Net EPA
1
49ers
SF
1643
-53
6.8
0.90
4.50
13.0
12.9
13.0
10.8
450
277
173
0.07
0.19
-0.07
-0.13
-0.07
-0.18
0.21
2
Eagles
PHI
1640
43
6.7
0.90
4.40
14.0
11.6
14.0
11.8
477
344
133
0.08
0.10
0.04
-0.07
-0.09
-0.02
0.15
3
Bengals
CIN
1633
17
6.4
0.40
3.80
12.0
10.4
10.0
9.9
418
322
96
0.06
0.16
-0.11
-0.04
-0.01
-0.08
0.10
4
Chiefs
KC
1618
10
5.8
-0.70
1.80
14.0
11.4
12.0
12.1
496
369
127
0.17
0.29
-0.08
-0.02
-0.00
-0.09
0.19
5
Bills
BUF
1600
-13
5.1
-1.20
-0.40
13.0
12.0
7.0
11.4
455
286
169
0.09
0.21
-0.11
-0.06
-0.02
-0.14
0.15
6
Cowboys
DAL
1593
16
4.8
0.10
1.30
12.0
11.5
12.0
10.7
467
342
125
0.01
0.05
-0.03
-0.11
-0.06
-0.15
0.11
7
Lions
DET
1531
25
2.3
0.50
2.60
9.0
9.1
7.0
7.1
453
427
26
0.05
0.15
-0.10
0.06
0.12
-0.02
-0.01
8
Packers
GB
1524
-25
2.1
-0.60
-1.10
8.0
8.5
11.0
8.8
370
371
-1
-0.01
0.03
-0.04
0.02
-0.00
0.01
-0.02
9
Steelers
PIT
1501
-28
1.1
1.10
-0.20
9.0
7.3
7.0
7.0
308
346
-38
-0.00
0.03
-0.01
0.02
0.09
-0.11
-0.02
10
Broncos
DEN
1496
-9
0.9
2.90
-1.20
5.0
6.3
6.0
7.8
287
359
-72
-0.11
-0.10
-0.14
-0.06
-0.04
-0.08
-0.05
11
Chargers
LAC
1493
-14
0.8
-0.30
-2.50
10.0
8.7
7.0
8.7
391
384
7
0.00
0.05
-0.10
-0.02
-0.05
0.04
0.02
12
Patriots
NE
1491
-12
0.7
-0.20
-1.60
8.0
9.0
10.0
8.0
364
347
17
-0.07
-0.05
-0.11
-0.11
-0.08
-0.16
0.04
13
Jaguars
JAX
1486
20
0.5
0.20
2.40
9.0
9.9
6.0
7.2
404
350
54
0.03
0.12
-0.11
-0.04
0.02
-0.17
0.07
14
Ravens
BAL
1485
-93
0.5
2.90
-2.40
10.0
9.6
9.0
9.8
350
315
35
0.01
-0.02
0.03
-0.03
0.03
-0.14
0.04
15
Saints
NO
1482
-23
0.4
-0.70
-2.00
7.0
8.1
9.0
7.7
330
345
-15
-0.05
0.02
-0.16
-0.06
-0.08
-0.08
0.01
16
Browns
CLE
1473
10
0.0
-1.20
2.50
7.0
8.0
7.0
7.9
361
381
-20
0.00
0.02
-0.03
0.00
-0.03
0.03
0.00
17
Vikings
MIN
1472
-2
-0.0
-0.90
-2.30
13.0
8.4
15.0
10.6
424
427
-3
-0.02
0.05
-0.14
0.01
0.07
-0.07
-0.04
18
Giants
NYG
1469
38
-0.1
-0.50
2.60
9.0
8.3
4.0
7.6
365
371
-6
0.02
0.09
-0.01
0.04
0.03
0.05
-0.01
19
Panthers
CAR
1443
36
-1.2
0.50
0.90
7.0
7.7
4.0
6.6
347
374
-27
-0.05
-0.06
-0.07
-0.01
0.06
-0.14
-0.05
20
Falcons
ATL
1433
-40
-1.6
4.00
-0.10
7.0
7.9
8.0
7.0
365
386
-21
-0.00
-0.00
0.00
0.06
0.12
-0.04
-0.06
21
Seahawks
SEA
1425
0
-1.9
-0.80
-1.30
9.0
8.6
9.0
8.3
407
401
6
-0.02
0.04
-0.14
0.01
0.05
-0.06
-0.03
22
Jets
NYJ
1417
34
-2.2
-0.70
-2.00
7.0
7.8
8.0
7.0
296
316
-20
-0.09
-0.08
-0.11
-0.06
-0.04
-0.07
-0.04
23
Dolphins
MIA
1415
-139
-2.3
0.90
-3.40
9.0
8.4
10.0
8.9
397
399
-2
0.03
0.09
-0.07
-0.01
0.08
-0.13
0.04
24
Rams
LAR
1408
-59
-2.6
-0.20
-6.70
5.0
6.3
7.0
7.8
307
384
-77
-0.09
-0.10
-0.08
0.01
0.07
-0.10
-0.10
25
Commanders
WAS
1402
-63
-2.8
-0.30
-2.40
8.0
7.8
8.0
7.9
321
343
-22
-0.08
-0.08
-0.09
-0.08
-0.04
-0.13
-0.00
26
Raiders
OAK
1394
-65
-3.1
-0.30
-4.40
6.0
7.9
5.0
7.9
395
418
-23
-0.01
0.03
-0.08
0.05
0.16
-0.10
-0.05
27
Buccaneers
TB
1390
5
-3.3
-0.70
-7.90
8.0
7.2
8.0
10.1
313
358
-45
-0.05
0.04
-0.21
-0.04
0.03
-0.13
-0.01
28
Titans
TEN
1351
-52
-4.9
0.50
-5.60
7.0
6.7
8.0
8.8
298
359
-61
-0.07
-0.06
-0.13
-0.01
0.08
-0.20
-0.06
29
Texans
HOU
1295
-8
-7.1
0.00
-5.60
3.0
5.0
3.0
4.3
289
420
-131
-0.19
-0.16
-0.19
-0.01
-0.02
-0.04
-0.18
30
Colts
IND
1268
-77
-8.2
-3.90
-8.90
4.0
4.8
5.0
8.0
289
427
-138
-0.19
-0.18
-0.18
-0.03
0.03
-0.12
-0.16
31
Cardinals
ARI
1229
-132
-9.7
-0.20
-10.50
4.0
5.8
3.0
7.2
340
449
-109
-0.10
-0.09
-0.07
-0.00
0.06
-0.10
-0.10
32
Bears
CHI
1193
-133
-11.2
-6.70
-10.30
3.0
5.2
3.0
6.2
326
463
-137
-0.06
-0.11
-0.01
0.09
0.19
-0.01
-0.15

nfelo Power Ratings

The table above contains are our model driven NFL power ratings, which are updated weekly using a combination of game results, play by play efficiency, film grades from Pro Football Focus, and a variety of custom models.
These ratings also incorporate quarterback grades from 538 and will account for changes to the starting quarterback or when an elite quarterback goes on a hot streak, but don't account for other player level changes like an injury along the offensive line or skill positions.
To improve predictive quality, all our ratings start the season using a blend of the prior season's performance and football outsider's projected DVOA. Incorporating DVOA projections helps to account for additions made in free agency, the impact of a solid draft, the development of young players, and head coach changes.
This model has proven to be quite strong at predicting game outcomes. In back tests, the nfelo model has been more accurate than the closing line, and routinely achieves top decile performance in 538's pick-em competition.

Additional Stats

In addition to our NFL power rankings, the table above includes some useful NFL team stats.
The Wins section compares how many wins a team actually has to how many wins they're expected to have based on a pythagorean wins model, PFF's film grades, and 538's pregame projections. Teams that have more or less wins than expected tend to regress to the mean overtime.
The Points section highlights points for and points against. While these stats seem simple, point differential is one of the most predictive measures of NFL team performance.
Finally, the EPA section details a team's per play efficiency based on Expected Points Added, which is an advanced stat derived from play by play data. This is a great way to determine the relative strengths of a team by looking at how they score points. For offensive EPA, positive values are better, while for defensive EPA, negative points are better.