Team Rankings and Stats

nfelo Power Rankings, Team Tendencies, EPA Tiers, and Grade Comparisons

nfelo
Spread Value
Wins
Points
Offensive EPA
Defensive EPA
Net EPA
1
Chiefs
KC
1636
21
6.4
-0.10
2.60
9.0
7.3
7.0
7.4
326
243
83
0.20
0.35
-0.10
0.01
0.03
-0.07
0.19
2
Bills
BUF
1634
0
6.3
-0.70
1.00
8.0
8.1
5.0
7.6
309
199
110
0.10
0.22
-0.13
-0.03
0.02
-0.15
0.14
3
Eagles
PHI
1616
20
5.6
0.40
3.40
10.0
7.6
9.0
7.6
303
216
87
0.09
0.10
0.05
-0.07
-0.11
0.04
0.16
4
49ers
SF
1612
27
5.4
0.60
3.30
7.0
7.7
8.0
6.9
249
173
76
0.06
0.17
-0.10
-0.10
-0.02
-0.17
0.16
5
Bengals
CIN
1608
20
5.3
0.60
2.80
7.0
6.8
7.0
6.7
285
231
54
0.08
0.19
-0.09
-0.02
0.00
-0.04
0.11
6
Cowboys
DAL
1599
21
4.9
-0.90
1.50
8.0
7.9
8.0
6.0
279
187
92
0.03
0.06
0.02
-0.10
-0.10
-0.09
0.13
7
Dolphins
MIA
1576
47
4.0
0.10
3.10
8.0
6.1
8.0
6.4
282
256
26
0.08
0.21
-0.14
0.00
0.08
-0.10
0.08
8
Ravens
BAL
1570
4
3.7
-0.70
1.00
7.0
6.7
7.0
6.7
275
227
48
0.07
0.07
0.06
-0.02
0.04
-0.14
0.08
9
Titans
TEN
1525
14
1.9
-0.40
1.40
7.0
5.6
7.0
6.0
209
205
4
-0.03
0.02
-0.15
-0.04
0.02
-0.19
0.01
10
Buccaneers
TB
1517
-1
1.6
-0.40
-2.90
5.0
5.4
5.0
6.9
200
203
-3
-0.03
0.08
-0.24
-0.04
-0.02
-0.08
0.01
11
Raiders
OAK
1516
1
1.6
0.70
0.60
4.0
5.2
4.0
5.1
265
276
-11
0.03
0.09
-0.08
0.07
0.24
-0.16
-0.04
12
Browns
CLE
1512
-26
1.4
1.20
4.10
4.0
5.0
4.0
4.5
263
286
-23
0.05
0.09
-0.01
0.08
0.06
0.10
-0.03
13
Vikings
MIN
1510
-21
1.3
0.10
-0.80
9.0
5.6
9.0
6.5
262
257
5
-0.03
0.02
-0.10
0.02
0.11
-0.13
-0.06
14
Patriots
NE
1508
-17
1.3
-0.20
-1.00
6.0
6.6
7.0
5.5
239
202
37
-0.06
-0.04
-0.09
-0.15
-0.12
-0.19
0.09
15
Packers
GB
1505
-12
1.1
0.00
-1.90
4.0
4.7
7.0
6.1
235
283
-48
-0.02
0.02
-0.05
0.03
0.01
0.02
-0.05
16
Chargers
LAC
1491
-11
0.6
-0.30
-2.60
6.0
4.8
3.0
5.8
252
282
-30
-0.01
0.06
-0.16
0.04
0.08
0.01
-0.05
17
Seahawks
SEA
1462
14
-0.6
-0.50
0.20
6.0
5.7
6.0
5.2
291
281
10
0.02
0.11
-0.14
0.03
0.13
-0.12
-0.01
18
Saints
NO
1447
-19
-1.2
0.00
-3.30
4.0
5.2
5.0
5.5
249
280
-31
-0.04
0.03
-0.16
-0.03
0.02
-0.11
-0.01
19
Commanders
WAS
1441
-17
-1.4
0.30
-0.80
7.0
5.9
5.0
5.7
233
236
-3
-0.07
-0.07
-0.07
-0.09
-0.07
-0.12
0.02
20
Colts
IND
1440
17
-1.5
-1.30
-2.00
4.0
4.3
2.0
6.0
190
244
-54
-0.15
-0.11
-0.20
-0.06
-0.00
-0.12
-0.10
21
Jaguars
JAX
1438
15
-1.5
0.30
0.50
4.0
5.8
2.0
4.3
244
232
12
0.04
0.13
-0.09
0.00
0.07
-0.16
0.04
22
Jets
NYJ
1435
-34
-1.7
-0.40
-1.30
7.0
6.5
7.0
4.5
230
196
34
-0.05
-0.04
-0.07
-0.07
-0.08
-0.06
0.03
23
Falcons
ATL
1431
-2
-1.8
0.00
-0.20
5.0
5.5
6.0
4.6
272
293
-21
0.02
0.03
0.01
0.09
0.12
-0.03
-0.07
24
Panthers
CAR
1430
23
-1.9
1.60
0.40
4.0
5.0
3.0
4.4
230
266
-36
-0.10
-0.14
-0.05
-0.02
0.02
-0.10
-0.08
25
Steelers
PIT
1429
-26
-1.9
1.20
-3.10
4.0
3.6
4.0
4.0
194
261
-67
-0.05
-0.07
0.00
0.04
0.13
-0.12
-0.09
26
Lions
DET
1427
0
-2.0
0.30
-1.50
4.0
4.7
3.0
4.0
275
310
-35
0.00
0.06
-0.05
0.11
0.17
0.03
-0.11
27
Cardinals
ARI
1418
7
-2.3
2.50
-2.90
4.0
4.6
3.0
5.5
264
321
-57
-0.03
0.01
-0.07
0.02
0.10
-0.10
-0.05
28
Broncos
DEN
1406
-17
-2.8
-0.60
-4.80
3.0
4.1
3.0
5.6
157
194
-37
-0.12
-0.08
-0.20
-0.09
-0.10
-0.06
-0.03
29
Giants
NYG
1401
14
-3.0
0.80
-0.10
7.0
5.3
1.0
5.6
225
232
-7
0.02
0.11
-0.03
0.04
0.09
0.00
-0.02
30
Bears
CHI
1349
-16
-5.1
-2.40
-4.10
3.0
4.6
2.0
4.8
251
305
-54
-0.01
-0.04
0.00
0.06
0.19
-0.07
-0.07
31
Rams
LAR
1319
-157
-6.3
-5.50
-10.30
3.0
3.3
5.0
5.7
178
253
-75
-0.12
-0.09
-0.14
0.01
0.10
-0.15
-0.13
32
Texans
HOU
1302
2
-7.0
0.40
-5.30
1.0
3.1
3.0
3.0
174
260
-86
-0.16
-0.20
-0.07
0.04
0.08
-0.05
-0.20

nfelo Power Ratings

The table above contains are our model driven NFL power ratings, which are updated weekly using a combination of game results, play by play efficiency, film grades from Pro Football Focus, and a variety of custom models.
These ratings also incorporate quarterback grades from 538 and will account for changes to the starting quarterback or when an elite quarterback goes on a hot streak, but don't account for other player level changes like an injury along the offensive line or skill positions.
To improve predictive quality, all our ratings start the season using a blend of the prior season's performance and football outsider's projected DVOA. Incorporating DVOA projections helps to account for additions made in free agency, the impact of a solid draft, the development of young players, and head coach changes.
This model has proven to be quite strong at predicting game outcomes. In back tests, the nfelo model has been more accurate than the closing line, and routinely achieves top decile performance in 538's pick-em competition.

Additional Stats

In addition to our NFL power rankings, the table above includes some useful NFL team stats.
The Wins section compares how many wins a team actually has to how many wins they're expected to have based on a pythagorean wins model, PFF's film grades, and 538's pregame projections. Teams that have more or less wins than expected tend to regress to the mean overtime.
The Points section highlights points for and points against. While these stats seem simple, point differential is one of the most predictive measures of NFL team performance.
Finally, the EPA section details a team's per play efficiency based on Expected Points Added, which is an advanced stat derived from play by play data. This is a great way to determine the relative strengths of a team by looking at how they score points. For offensive EPA, positive values are better, while for defensive EPA, negative points are better.