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Games

Week 22, 2021

Last week recap
Market LineModel LineWin %EV
Rams
Rams-4-3.563%-8.2%
Bengals
Bengals37%-0.5%

Featured Posts

What are Expected Points Added (EPA) in the NFL

October 23rd, 2021

Using Market Regression to Improve Prediction Accuracy in the NFL

November 8th, 2020

Margin Probabilities from NFL Spreads

November 1st, 2020

Weighted EPA Methodology & Performance

September 5th, 2020

All Posts

Category

Team & Scheme, the Under-appreciated Elements of QB Play in the NFL

December 30th, 2021

A Further Exploration of Home Field Advantage in the NFL

December 20th, 2021

What are Expected Points Added (EPA) in the NFL

October 23rd, 2021

A Simple Model for Cover Probability

May 9th, 2021

Using Market Regression to Improve Prediction Accuracy in the NFL

November 8th, 2020

Margin Probabilities from NFL Spreads

November 1st, 2020

Weighted EPA Methodology & Performance

September 5th, 2020

An Initial Exploration of Home Field Advantage in the NFL

January 1st, 2020

What's the Best NFL Game Grade?

December 26th, 2019

Games

  • Weekly Games
  • +EV Betting Card
  • Confience Pool Picks
  • nfelo Model Performance

Teams

  • NFL Power Ratings
  • NFL EPA Team Tiers
  • EPA Tiers by Team
  • Metric Comparison

QBs

  • QB Rankings
  • Historic QB Rankings

Tools

  • Cover Probability
  • NFL Home Field Tracker

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