PredictionTracker's most accurate model of 2024

Data Driven
NFL Predictions

Using play-by-play data, advanced metrics, and custom models to generate picks and power rankings for all 32 teams.

57.0%
Win Rate (Open)
54.2%
Win Rate (Close)
+6.0%
Avg CLV
Power Rankings

Elo rankings for the NFL

Track team strength, efficiency, and momentum throughout the season using a custom Elo model tailored to the dynamics of the NFL.

Power Rankings
1
Rams logo
Rams
1658
322
2
Bills logo
Bills
1652
197
3
Ravens logo
Ravens
1612
6
4
49ers logo
49ers
1612
156
5
Seahawks logo
Seahawks
1611
182
6
Chiefs logo
Chiefs
1605
259
7
Patriots logo
Patriots
1590
-40
8
Jaguars logo
Jaguars
1584
120
Weekly Projections

Find expected value

nfelo's power ratings are translated into spreads, win probabilities, and confidence picks for every game. Games with positive expected value are highlighted.

Projections
4 +EV
Seahawks @ Broncos
Pick: Broncos
Seahawks logo
-3.0
Ravens @ Browns
Pick: Ravens
Ravens logo
-4.5
Texans @ Jaguars
Pick: Texans
Jaguars logo
-2.5
Chargers @ Chiefs
Pick: Chargers
Chiefs logo
-8.5
Steelers @ Buccaneers
Steelers logo
-3.0
Model Performance

Transparent Model Performance

nfelo's performance backtest is updated weekly and available back to 2009. Picks are submitted and tracked by PredictionTracker.com, and the model code is available openly on Github.

Model Performance
+174.80u
Units
(vs Open)
57.0%
Win Rate
(vs Open)
5K
Total
Games