PredictionTracker's most accurate model of 2024

Data Driven
NFL Predictions

Using play-by-play data, advanced metrics, and custom models to generate picks and power rankings for all 32 teams.

55.8%
Win Rate (Open)
55.1%
Win Rate (Close)
+5.8%
Avg CLV
Power Rankings

Elo rankings for the NFL

Track team strength, efficiency, and momentum throughout the season using a custom Elo model tailored to the dynamics of the NFL.

Power Rankings
1
Bills logo
Bills
1640
185
2
Ravens logo
Ravens
1634
28
3
Rams logo
Rams
1627
290
4
Seahawks logo
Seahawks
1614
185
5
Chiefs logo
Chiefs
1607
260
6
Patriots logo
Patriots
1587
-43
7
Bears logo
Bears
1584
25
8
Lions logo
Lions
1579
238
Weekly Projections

Find expected value

nfelo's power ratings are translated into spreads, win probabilities, and confidence picks for every game. Games with positive expected value are highlighted.

Projections
5 +EV
Raiders @ Chargers
Pick: Raiders
Chargers logo
-7.0
Packers @ Jets
Pick: Jets
Packers logo
-3.5
Seahawks @ Cardinals
Pick: Seahawks
Seahawks logo
-4.5
Vikings @ Bears
Pick: Vikings
Bears logo
-5.5
Dolphins @ 49ers
Pick: Dolphins
49ers logo
-13.5
Model Performance

Transparent Model Performance

nfelo's performance backtest is updated weekly and available back to 2009. Picks are submitted and tracked by PredictionTracker.com, and the model code is available openly on Github.

Model Performance
+131.50u
Units
(vs Open)
55.8%
Win Rate
(vs Open)
5K
Total
Games
Research

Explore the model

Major features and advanced metrics used in the model are explained through deep dives, primers, and analysis.

Latest Research
What are Expected Points Added (EPA) in the NFL
If you follow the NFL, and especially if you follow football analytics, Expected Points Added (EPA) ...
2021-10-23•EPA
Using Market Regression to Improve Prediction Accuracy in the NFL
Regressing a predictive NFL model to market spreads creates a model that reliably beats the Vegas li...
2020-11-08•Models
Margin Probabilities from NFL Spreads
By using data to model key numbers in NFL outcomes, the expected value (EV) of a bet can be calculat...
2020-11-01•EV
Weighted EPA Methodology & Performance
Weighting Expected Points Added (EPA) yields a model that predicts future NFL team performance bette...
2020-09-05•Weighted EPA