PredictionTracker's most accurate model of 2024

Data Driven
NFL Predictions

Using play-by-play data, advanced metrics, and custom models to generate picks and power rankings for all 32 teams.

57.0%
Win Rate (Open)
54.1%
Win Rate (Close)
+6.0%
Avg CLV
Power Rankings

Elo rankings for the NFL

Track team strength, efficiency, and momentum throughout the season using a custom Elo model tailored to the dynamics of the NFL.

Power Rankings
1
Rams logo
Rams
1656
319
2
Bills logo
Bills
1644
189
3
Seahawks logo
Seahawks
1631
203
4
49ers logo
49ers
1603
147
5
Bengals logo
Bengals
1601
142
6
Texans logo
Texans
1597
81
7
Bears logo
Bears
1596
37
8
Chiefs logo
Chiefs
1590
243
Weekly Projections

Find expected value

nfelo's power ratings are translated into spreads, win probabilities, and confidence picks for every game. Games with positive expected value are highlighted.

Projections
3 +EV
Cardinals @ Cowboys
Pick: Cowboys
Cowboys logo
-6.5
Browns @ Steelers
Pick: Steelers
Steelers logo
-3.5
Chiefs @ Broncos
Pick: Broncos
Chiefs logo
-1.5
Bears @ Seahawks
Seahawks logo
-3.0
Panthers @ Packers
Packers logo
-3.5
Model Performance

Transparent Model Performance

nfelo's performance backtest is updated weekly and available back to 2009. Picks are submitted and tracked by PredictionTracker.com, and the model code is available openly on Github.

Model Performance
+177.50u
Units
(vs Open)
57.0%
Win Rate
(vs Open)
5K
Total
Games