Games

Week 4, 2022

Last week recap

NFL Confidence Picks: Week 4, 2022

Below are the nfelo model's picks ranked by confidence (16 is most confident)

nfelo is one of the most accurate NFL prediction models on the internet and has picked winners more accurately than the Vegas line in back tests dating back to 2009

Confidence Rank
Winner
16

Patriots

NE

Patriots

@

Packers

Packers

GB

15

Jaguars

JAX

Jaguars

@

Eagles

Eagles

PHI

14

Jets

NYJ

Jets

@

Steelers

Steelers

PIT

13

Seahawks

SEA

Seahawks

@

Lions

Lions

DET

12

Chargers

LAC

Chargers

@

Texans

Texans

HOU

11

Titans

TEN

Titans

@

Colts

Colts

IND

10

Bears

CHI

Bears

@

Giants

Giants

NYG

9

Commanders

WAS

Commanders

@

Cowboys

Cowboys

DAL

8

Vikings

MIN

Vikings

@

Saints

Saints

NO

7

Rams

LAR

Rams

@

49ers

49ers

SF

6

Dolphins

MIA

Dolphins

@

Bengals

Bengals

CIN

5

Bills

BUF

Bills

@

Ravens

Ravens

BAL

4

Cardinals

ARI

Cardinals

@

Panthers

Panthers

CAR

3

Chiefs

KC

Chiefs

@

Buccaneers

Buccaneers

TB

2

Browns

CLE

Browns

@

Falcons

Falcons

ATL

1

Broncos

DEN

Broncos

@

Raiders

Raiders

OAK

NFL Confidence Pool Picks

NFL confidence pools (also known as pick’ems) are season long prediction competitions typically held amongst office colleagues or friend groups. Each week, players pick straight up winners for every game and stack rank those picks based on how confident they are in their prediction. These are your "confidence picks."
When a player’s pick is correct, they’re awarded points based on how highly they ranked the game. Their most confident pick yields 16 points, their second most confident pick yields 15 points, and so on and so forth. The player with the most points across all games wins the pool, with prizes typically given for weekly and entire season.

Confidence Pool Strategy

Winning an NFL confidence pool requires two essential abilities -- picking games accurately and ranking games effectively. The most accurate picker over the course of an NFL season typically won’t actually win the pool because they did a poor job ranking their selections. Confidence pool players often turn to published picks from confidence pool experts to help inform their selections, but these approaches add a heavy element of subjectivity. The most surefire way to reliably maximize picking accuracy and ranking efficiency is to use a model that tells you both.

nfelo’s Free Confidence Pool Picks

nfelo is a power ranking model that incorporates a wide variety of data points and market information from oddsmakers to generate some of the most accurate picks available on the internet. Since 2009, it's picked winners more accurately than the closing point spread in its backtests and repeatedly finishes in the upper decile of 538's pick'em competition.
Though the model is designed for spreads, those spreads are easily translated into win probability projections, which are perfect for an NFL confidence pool. Not only does the model predict a winner, its win probability number tells you exactly how confident you should be in each projection. All this work is done for you and presented in the table above.