nfelo

Games

Teams

QBs

Analysis

Team Summary

Team stats and rankings measure a point in time and update week to week. Elo rankings are gross of any adjustments, including QB. The downgrade for an injured QB is reflected in the EV calculations below.

49ers
49ers
(15 - 4 - 0) | pythag wins: 14.5
nfelo
Net EPA / Play
1697 (1)0.2 (1)

@

Eagles
Eagles
(15 - 3 - 0) | pythag wins: 12.8
nfelo
Net EPA / Play
1597 (5)0.18 (3)
EPA Ranks
49ers
Eagles
Offense
3
2
Pass
2
6
Run
10
1
Defense
1
4
Pass
4
1
Run
2
27

49ers Last 5 Games

OppResultMarginLineATS
DAL
W 19-12
7
-3.5
W
SEA
W 41-23
18
-10.0
W
ARI
W 38-13
25
-14.0
W
@OAK
W 37-34
3
-10.0
L
WAS
W 37-20
17
-6.5
W

Eagles Last 5 Games

OppResultMarginLineATS
NYG
W 38-7
31
-8.0
W
NYG
W 22-16
6
-16.5
L
NO
L 10-20
-10
-5.5
L
@DAL
L 34-40
-6
4.0
L
@CHI
W 25-20
5
-8.5
L

EV Calculation

Difference in nfelo ratings (ie Power Ratings) is adjusted for context, regressed to the market, and translated to a spread. This spread is then used to calculate an EV based on modeled W/L/P probabilities.

Home nfelo................................................1597
-Away nfelo................................................1697
Unadj Difference................................................(101)
.
+HFA Adj ▸................................................55
+Net Rest Adj................................................0
+Net QB Adj................................................89
Adj Difference................................................48
.
Market Dif................................................63
Market Reg. Factor................................................1
Regressed Dif................................................43
.

Translate nfelo difference to a WP% and spread

Teamnfelo Dif ➡Win Prob ➡nfelo Spread
Eagles4356%-2.5
49ers(43)44%2.5

Translate model spread into an expected bet value (EV)▸

Eagles

Model LineMarket LineLoss %Push %Cover %PriceEV ($)EV (%)
-2.5-2.550%0%50%105$-2.5-2.4%
-2.5-2.550%0%50%110$-5-4.5%
-2.5-2.550%0%50%115$-7.5-6.5%

49ers

Model LineMarket LineLoss %Push %Cover %PriceEV ($)EV (%)
2.52.550%0%50%105$-2.5-2.4%
2.52.550%0%50%110$-5-4.5%
2.52.550%0%50%115$-7.5-6.5%
.