Team stats and rankings measure a point in time and update week to week. Elo rankings are gross of any adjustments, including QB. The downgrade for an injured QB is reflected in the EV calculations below.
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49ers | |||||||
(15 - 4 - 0) | pythag wins: 14.5 | |||||||
nfelo | Net EPA / Play | ||||||
1697 (1) | 0.2 (1) | ||||||
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Eagles | |||||||
(15 - 3 - 0) | pythag wins: 12.8 | |||||||
nfelo | Net EPA / Play | ||||||
1597 (5) | 0.18 (3) | ||||||
EPA Ranks | ![]() | ![]() |
Offense | 3 | 2 |
Pass | 2 | 6 |
Run | 10 | 1 |
Defense | 1 | 4 |
Pass | 4 | 1 |
Run | 2 | 27 |
Difference in nfelo ratings (ie Power Ratings) is adjusted for context, regressed to the market, and translated to a spread. This spread is then used to calculate an EV based on modeled W/L/P probabilities.
Home nfelo | ................................................ | 1597 | |
- | Away nfelo | ................................................ | 1697 |
Unadj Difference | ................................................ | (101) | |
. | |||
+ | HFA Adj ▸ | ................................................ | 55 |
+ | Net Rest Adj | ................................................ | 0 |
+ | Net QB Adj | ................................................ | 89 |
Adj Difference | ................................................ | 48 | |
. | |||
Market Dif | ................................................ | 63 | |
Market Reg. Factor | ................................................ | 1 | |
Regressed Dif | ................................................ | 43 | |
. |
Translate nfelo difference to a WP% and spread
Team | nfelo Dif ➡ | Win Prob ➡ | nfelo Spread |
---|---|---|---|
Eagles | 43 | 56% | -2.5 |
49ers | (43) | 44% | 2.5 |
Translate model spread into an expected bet value (EV)▸
Eagles
Model Line | Market Line | Loss % | Push % | Cover % | Price | EV ($) | EV (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-2.5 | -2.5 | 50% | 0% | 50% | 105 | $-2.5 | -2.4% |
-2.5 | -2.5 | 50% | 0% | 50% | 110 | $-5 | -4.5% |
-2.5 | -2.5 | 50% | 0% | 50% | 115 | $-7.5 | -6.5% |
49ers
Model Line | Market Line | Loss % | Push % | Cover % | Price | EV ($) | EV (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2.5 | 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 50% | 105 | $-2.5 | -2.4% |
2.5 | 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 50% | 110 | $-5 | -4.5% |
2.5 | 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 50% | 115 | $-7.5 | -6.5% |
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