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Team Summary

Team stats and rankings measure a point in time and update week to week. Elo rankings are gross of any adjustments, including QB. The downgrade for an injured QB is reflected in the EV calculations below.

Bengals
Bengals
(14 - 4 - 0) | pythag wins: 12
nfelo
Net EPA / Play
1617 (2)0.11 (6)

@

Chiefs
Chiefs
(15 - 3 - 0) | pythag wins: 12
nfelo
Net EPA / Play
1609 (4)0.19 (2)
EPA Ranks
Bengals
Chiefs
Offense
5
1
Pass
4
1
Run
19
16
Defense
10
14
Pass
13
14
Run
17
21

Bengals Last 5 Games

OppResultMarginLineATS
@BUF
W 27-10
17
6.0
W
BAL
W 24-17
7
-7.5
L
BAL
W 27-16
11
-11.0
P
@NE
W 22-18
4
-3.0
W
@TB
W 34-23
11
-3.5
W

Chiefs Last 5 Games

OppResultMarginLineATS
JAX
W 27-20
7
-10.0
L
@OAK
W 31-13
18
-9.0
W
DEN
W 27-24
3
-13.5
L
SEA
W 24-10
14
-10.5
W
@HOU
W 30-24
6
-14.5
L

EV Calculation

Difference in nfelo ratings (ie Power Ratings) is adjusted for context, regressed to the market, and translated to a spread. This spread is then used to calculate an EV based on modeled W/L/P probabilities.

Home nfelo................................................1609
-Away nfelo................................................1617
Unadj Difference................................................(8)
.
+HFA Adj ▸................................................70
+Net Rest Adj................................................0
+Net QB Adj................................................(13)
Adj Difference................................................54
.
Market Dif................................................(25)
Market Reg. Factor................................................0.27
Regressed Dif................................................35
.

Translate nfelo difference to a WP% and spread

Teamnfelo Dif ➡Win Prob ➡nfelo Spread
Chiefs3555%-2.5
Bengals(35)45%2.5

Translate model spread into an expected bet value (EV)▸

Chiefs

Model LineMarket LineLoss %Push %Cover %PriceEV ($)EV (%)
-2.5144%1%56%105$9.669.2%
-2.5144%1%56%110$7.486.8%
-2.5144%1%56%115$5.34.6%

Bengals

Model LineMarket LineLoss %Push %Cover %PriceEV ($)EV (%)
2.5-156%1%44%105$-14.62-13.9%
2.5-156%1%44%110$-17.4-15.8%
2.5-156%1%44%115$-20.17-17.5%
.

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