Team stats and rankings measure a point in time and update week to week. Elo rankings are gross of any adjustments, including QB. The downgrade for an injured QB is reflected in the EV calculations below.
![]() | |||||||
Bengals | |||||||
(14 - 4 - 0) | pythag wins: 12 | |||||||
nfelo | Net EPA / Play | ||||||
1617 (2) | 0.11 (6) | ||||||
@
![]() | |||||||
Chiefs | |||||||
(15 - 3 - 0) | pythag wins: 12 | |||||||
nfelo | Net EPA / Play | ||||||
1609 (4) | 0.19 (2) | ||||||
EPA Ranks | ![]() | ![]() |
Offense | 5 | 1 |
Pass | 4 | 1 |
Run | 19 | 16 |
Defense | 10 | 14 |
Pass | 13 | 14 |
Run | 17 | 21 |
Difference in nfelo ratings (ie Power Ratings) is adjusted for context, regressed to the market, and translated to a spread. This spread is then used to calculate an EV based on modeled W/L/P probabilities.
Home nfelo | ................................................ | 1609 | |
- | Away nfelo | ................................................ | 1617 |
Unadj Difference | ................................................ | (8) | |
. | |||
+ | HFA Adj ▸ | ................................................ | 70 |
+ | Net Rest Adj | ................................................ | 0 |
+ | Net QB Adj | ................................................ | (13) |
Adj Difference | ................................................ | 54 | |
. | |||
Market Dif | ................................................ | (25) | |
Market Reg. Factor | ................................................ | 0.27 | |
Regressed Dif | ................................................ | 35 | |
. |
Translate nfelo difference to a WP% and spread
Team | nfelo Dif ➡ | Win Prob ➡ | nfelo Spread |
---|---|---|---|
Chiefs | 35 | 55% | -2.5 |
Bengals | (35) | 45% | 2.5 |
Translate model spread into an expected bet value (EV)▸
Chiefs
Model Line | Market Line | Loss % | Push % | Cover % | Price | EV ($) | EV (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-2.5 | 1 | 44% | 1% | 56% | 105 | $9.66 | 9.2% |
-2.5 | 1 | 44% | 1% | 56% | 110 | $7.48 | 6.8% |
-2.5 | 1 | 44% | 1% | 56% | 115 | $5.3 | 4.6% |
Bengals
Model Line | Market Line | Loss % | Push % | Cover % | Price | EV ($) | EV (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2.5 | -1 | 56% | 1% | 44% | 105 | $-14.62 | -13.9% |
2.5 | -1 | 56% | 1% | 44% | 110 | $-17.4 | -15.8% |
2.5 | -1 | 56% | 1% | 44% | 115 | $-20.17 | -17.5% |
. |
@greerreNFL
NFL Analytics and Betting
Follow