Team Summary
Team stats and rankings measure a point in time and update week to week. Elo rankings are gross of any adjustments, including QB. The downgrade for an injured QB is reflected in the EV calculations below.
 | |||||||
| Bengals | |||||||
| (14 - 4 - 0) | pythag wins: 12 | |||||||
nfelo | Net EPA / Play | ||||||
| 1617 (2) | 0.11 (6) | ||||||
@
 | |||||||
| Chiefs | |||||||
| (15 - 3 - 0) | pythag wins: 12 | |||||||
nfelo | Net EPA / Play | ||||||
| 1609 (4) | 0.19 (2) | ||||||
| EPA Ranks | | |
| Offense | 5 | 1 |
| Pass | 4 | 1 |
| Run | 19 | 16 |
| Defense | 10 | 14 |
| Pass | 13 | 14 |
| Run | 17 | 21 |
EV Calculation
Difference in nfelo ratings (ie Power Ratings) is adjusted for context, regressed to the market, and translated to a spread. This spread is then used to calculate an EV based on modeled W/L/P probabilities.
| Home nfelo | ................................................ | 1609 | |
| - | Away nfelo | ................................................ | 1617 |
| Unadj Difference | ................................................ | (8) | |
| . | |||
| + | HFA Adj ▸ | ................................................ | 70 |
| + | Net Rest Adj | ................................................ | 0 |
| + | Net QB Adj | ................................................ | (13) |
| Adj Difference | ................................................ | 54 | |
| . | |||
| Market Dif | ................................................ | (25) | |
| Market Reg. Factor | ................................................ | 0.27 | |
| Regressed Dif | ................................................ | 35 | |
| . |
Translate nfelo difference to a WP% and spread
| Team | nfelo Dif ➡ | Win Prob ➡ | nfelo Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 35 | 55% | -2.5 |
| Bengals | (35) | 45% | 2.5 |
Translate model spread into an expected bet value (EV)▸
Chiefs
| Model Line | Market Line | Loss % | Push % | Cover % | Price | EV ($) | EV (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 1 | 44% | 1% | 56% | 105 | $9.66 | 9.2% |
| -2.5 | 1 | 44% | 1% | 56% | 110 | $7.48 | 6.8% |
| -2.5 | 1 | 44% | 1% | 56% | 115 | $5.3 | 4.6% |
Bengals
| Model Line | Market Line | Loss % | Push % | Cover % | Price | EV ($) | EV (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | -1 | 56% | 1% | 44% | 105 | $-14.62 | -13.9% |
| 2.5 | -1 | 56% | 1% | 44% | 110 | $-17.4 | -15.8% |
| 2.5 | -1 | 56% | 1% | 44% | 115 | $-20.17 | -17.5% |
| . |
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