Team stats and rankings measure a point in time and update week to week. Elo rankings are gross of any adjustments, including QB. The downgrade for an injured QB is reflected in the EV calculations below.
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49ers | |||||||
(14 - 5 - 0) | pythag wins: 14.1 | |||||||
nfelo | Net EPA / Play | ||||||
1671 (3) | 0.25 (1) | ||||||
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Chiefs | |||||||
(14 - 6 - 0) | pythag wins: 13.1 | |||||||
nfelo | Net EPA / Play | ||||||
1700 (1) | 0.11 (6) | ||||||
EPA Ranks | ![]() | ![]() |
Offense | 1 | 10 |
Pass | 1 | 7 |
Run | 1 | 27 |
Defense | 7 | 5 |
Pass | 5 | 3 |
Run | 25 | 28 |
Difference in nfelo ratings (ie Power Ratings) is adjusted for context, regressed to the market, and translated to a spread. This spread is then used to calculate an EV based on modeled W/L/P probabilities.
Home nfelo | ................................................ | 1700 | |
- | Away nfelo | ................................................ | 1671 |
Unadj Difference | ................................................ | 29 | |
. | |||
+ | HFA Adj ▸ | ................................................ | 1 |
+ | Net Rest Adj | ................................................ | 0 |
+ | Net QB Adj | ................................................ | (22) |
Adj Difference | ................................................ | 8 | |
. | |||
Market Dif | ................................................ | (38) | |
Market Reg. Factor | ................................................ | 0.52 | |
Regressed Dif | ................................................ | (9) | |
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Translate nfelo difference to a WP% and spread
Team | nfelo Dif ➡ | Win Prob ➡ | nfelo Spread |
---|---|---|---|
Chiefs | (9) | 49% | 0.5 |
49ers | 9 | 51% | -0.5 |
Translate model spread into an expected bet value (EV)▸
Chiefs
Model Line | Market Line | Loss % | Push % | Cover % | Price | EV ($) | EV (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5 | 1.5 | 49% | 0% | 51% | 105 | $-0.91 | -0.9% |
0.5 | 1.5 | 49% | 0% | 51% | 110 | $-3.37 | -3.1% |
0.5 | 1.5 | 49% | 0% | 51% | 115 | $-5.83 | -5.1% |
49ers
Model Line | Market Line | Loss % | Push % | Cover % | Price | EV ($) | EV (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-0.5 | -1.5 | 51% | 0% | 49% | 105 | $-4.09 | -3.9% |
-0.5 | -1.5 | 51% | 0% | 49% | 110 | $-6.63 | -6% |
-0.5 | -1.5 | 51% | 0% | 49% | 115 | $-9.17 | -8% |
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