Team stats and rankings measure a point in time and update week to week. Elo rankings are gross of any adjustments, including QB. The downgrade for an injured QB is reflected in the EV calculations below.
Jets | |||||||
(2 - 2 - 0) | pythag wins: 2.5 | |||||||
nfelo | Net EPA / Play | ||||||
1520 (15) | 0.16 (7) | ||||||
@
Vikings | |||||||
(4 - 0 - 0) | pythag wins: 3.3 | |||||||
nfelo | Net EPA / Play | ||||||
1552 (9) | 0.24 (2) | ||||||
EPA Ranks | ||
Offense | 14 | 8 |
Pass | 13 | 9 |
Run | 20 | 15 |
Defense | 5 | 3 |
Pass | 1 | 4 |
Run | 21 | 4 |
Difference in nfelo ratings (ie Power Ratings) is adjusted for context, regressed to the market, and translated to a spread. This spread is then used to calculate an EV based on modeled W/L/P probabilities.
Home nfelo | ................................................ | 1552 | |
- | Away nfelo | ................................................ | 1520 |
Unadj Difference | ................................................ | 33 | |
. | |||
+ | HFA Adj ▸ | ................................................ | (8) |
+ | Net Rest Adj | ................................................ | 0 |
+ | Net QB Adj | ................................................ | (23) |
Adj Difference | ................................................ | 2 | |
. | |||
Market Dif | ................................................ | 63 | |
Market Reg. Factor | ................................................ | 0.62 | |
Regressed Dif | ................................................ | 27 | |
. |
Translate nfelo difference to a WP% and spread
Team | nfelo Dif ➡ | Win Prob ➡ | nfelo Spread |
---|---|---|---|
Vikings | 27 | 54% | -2 |
Jets | (27) | 46% | 2 |
Translate model spread into an expected bet value (EV)▸
Vikings
Model Line | Market Line | Loss % | Push % | Cover % | Price | EV ($) | EV (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-2 | -2.5 | 52% | 0% | 48% | 105 | $-6.3 | -6% |
-2 | -2.5 | 52% | 0% | 48% | 110 | $-8.89 | -8.1% |
-2 | -2.5 | 52% | 0% | 48% | 115 | $-11.49 | -10% |
Jets
Model Line | Market Line | Loss % | Push % | Cover % | Price | EV ($) | EV (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2.5 | 48% | 0% | 52% | 105 | $1.3 | 1.2% |
2 | 2.5 | 48% | 0% | 52% | 110 | $-1.11 | -1% |
2 | 2.5 | 48% | 0% | 52% | 115 | $-3.51 | -3.1% |
. |
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