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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ broncos week 20, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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BUF logo
BUFBills
13-5
+1.0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0
-1.0
DENBroncos
14-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model56.7%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,628
Away nfelo
1,634
Home Field
+88.6
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
+15.9
Net QB Adjustment
+5.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.1
Market Regression
+9.0
Final Difference
46.7
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Value
Ptile
11/02
7.7
94
11/09
2.5
69
11/16
12.0
99
11/20
-7.8
6
11/30
1.8
63
12/07
10.9
98
12/14
4.2
78
12/21
-1.8
38
12/28
3.1
73
01/11
9.6
97
B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Value
Ptile
10/26
3.6
77
11/02
0.1
52
11/06
-7.7
6
11/16
0.4
54
11/30
2.5
68
12/07
2.3
67
12/14
8.7
96
12/21
1.1
59
12/25
2.6
69
01/04
-2.5
33

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bills logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
4
4
Yards / Game
4
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
21
Rushing Yards / Game
2
2

EPA

EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
4
4
EPA / Rush
2
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
31
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
21
22
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
2
4th Down Efficiency
9
12
RZ Efficiency
2
1
Broncos Offense vs Bills Defense
Broncos logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
14
11
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
25
1
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28

EPA

EPA / Play
15
19
EPA / Pass
10
6
EPA / Rush
16
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
15
Interceptions / Game
13
10
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
8
RZ Efficiency
12
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
-17
L
L
U
11/16
12
W
W
O
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/30
19
W
W
U
12/07
5
W
L
O
12/14
4
W
W
O
12/21
3
W
L
O
12/28
-1
L
L
U
01/04
27
W
W
O
01/11
3
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
20
W
W
O
11/02
3
W
W
U
11/06
3
W
L
U
11/16
3
W
W
U
11/30
1
W
L
O
12/07
7
W
L
O
12/14
8
W
W
O
12/21
-14
L
L
O
12/25
7
W
L
U
01/04
16
W
W
U