BUFBills
5-7
10
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
59°F
5 mph
37
LACChargers
5-7
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
59°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
4
0
4
Chargers
7
9
8
7
31
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
281
366
Total Plays
58
67
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.16
Passing Yards
185
216
Comp/Att
15/37(41%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.26
Rushing Yards
96
150
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-15.29
-6.39
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-24
Sack EPA
-1.26
-7.97
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
+1.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+204
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,443
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-15.0
Home QB Adjustment
-2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
+5.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
23
Yards / Game
14
16
Passing Yards / Game
15
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20
EPA
EPA / Play
17
29
EPA / Pass
19
28
EPA / Rush
6
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
25
Interceptions / Game
31
15
Fumbles / Game
2
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
2
RZ Efficiency
11
26
Chargers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
6
25
Passing Yards / Game
16
1
Rushing Yards / Game
16
28
EPA
EPA / Play
4
26
EPA / Pass
4
21
EPA / Rush
12
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
25
5
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
21
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
10
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U