BUFBills
5-5
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
10 mph
28
NYJJets
5-5
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
7
7
3
24
Jets
0
14
7
7
28
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
318
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.24
Passing Yards
250
--
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
17/35(49%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.12
Rushing Yards
86
138
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
3.1
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+4.43
-3.36
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-3.21
--
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
85
--
Penalty EPA
-6.30
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.2
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
-0.5
Market Regression
+5.6
Final Difference
222.5
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
19
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
15
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14
EPA
EPA / Play
17
8
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
6
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
31
9
Fumbles / Game
2
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
11
9
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
26
25
Passing Yards / Game
18
1
Rushing Yards / Game
22
28
EPA
EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
13
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
32
Interceptions / Game
23
5
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
21
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U