CLEBrowns
5-9
12
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
51°F
15 mph
34
DENBroncos
11-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
51°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
3
6
12
Broncos
7
7
7
13
34
Spread
-11
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
233
457
Total Plays
61
75
Yards / Play
3.8
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.26
Passing Yards
142
--
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.23
+0.42
Rushing Yards
91
118
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
13
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
25%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+1.34
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-41
--
Sack EPA
-11.30
--
Penalties
10
11
Penalty Yards
69
84
Penalty EPA
-8.07
-8.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model84.8%
Spread Pick
Broncos-11.0
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+341
Home nfelo
1,678
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
-3.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
298.5
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
4
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
24
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4
EPA
EPA / Play
26
3
EPA / Pass
27
6
EPA / Rush
13
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
27
14
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
17
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
1
4th Down Efficiency
21
5
RZ Efficiency
30
25
Broncos Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
29
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
18
EPA
EPA / Play
4
12
EPA / Pass
2
18
EPA / Rush
26
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
15
Interceptions / Game
8
11
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
12
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
4
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U