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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ broncos week 16, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
5-9
12
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
51°F
15 mph
34
DENBroncos
11-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
51°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
3
6
12
Broncos
7
7
7
13
34

Spread

DEN logo
-11

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
233
457
Total Plays
61
75
Yards / Play
3.8
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.26
Passing Yards
142
--
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.23
+0.42
Rushing Yards
91
118
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
13
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
25%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+1.34
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-41
--
Sack EPA
-11.30
--
Penalties
10
11
Penalty Yards
69
84
Penalty EPA
-8.07
-8.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-13.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model84.6%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos-11.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+336
Home nfelo
1,674
Away nfelo
1,437
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
-3.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
296.3
Model Spread
-13.0

Quarterbacks

B. Weeden headshot

B. Weeden

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Value
Ptile
10/07
1.9
61
10/14
-0.6
46
10/21
5.3
83
10/28
-7.9
6
11/04
-5.6
15
11/18
0.4
52
11/25
-3.6
27
12/02
1.4
59
12/09
-2.9
30
12/16
-3.6
27
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Value
Ptile
10/07
8.1
93
10/15
7.0
90
10/28
7.6
92
11/04
5.6
85
11/11
4.6
79
11/18
0.5
53
11/25
0.7
54
12/02
3.5
72
12/06
-0.7
45
12/16
-0.1
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Broncos Defense
Browns logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
24
4
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
24
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4

EPA

EPA / Play
26
3
EPA / Pass
27
6
EPA / Rush
13
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
27
14
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
17
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
1
4th Down Efficiency
21
5
RZ Efficiency
30
25
Broncos Offense vs Browns Defense
Broncos logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
29
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
18

EPA

EPA / Play
4
12
EPA / Pass
2
18
EPA / Rush
26
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
15
Interceptions / Game
8
11
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
12
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
4
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-14
L
L
O
10/14
10
W
W
O
10/21
-4
L
L
U
10/28
1
W
W
U
11/04
-10
L
L
U
11/18
-3
L
W
U
11/25
6
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
U
12/09
23
W
W
U
12/16
-17
L
L
O
DEN logo

Broncos

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-10
L
L
O
10/15
11
W
W
O
10/28
20
W
W
U
11/04
8
W
W
O
11/11
22
W
W
O
11/18
7
W
L
O
11/25
8
W
L
U
12/02
8
W
L
O
12/06
13
W
W
U
12/16
17
W
W
O