TBBuccaneers
3-1
+3.5
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
0-3.5
SEASeahawks
3-1
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
0Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+59.1
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-6.5
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
2
Yards / Game
15
13
Passing Yards / Game
8
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
6
EPA
EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
15
16
EPA / Rush
15
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
2
2
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
29
6
Seahawks Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
20
Yards / Game
16
4
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5
EPA
EPA / Play
11
12
EPA / Pass
7
13
EPA / Rush
27
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
17
Interceptions / Game
9
24
Fumbles / Game
25
16
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
14
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U