TBBuccaneers
3-1
38
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
8 mph
35
SEASeahawks
3-1
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
10
15
10
38
Seahawks
0
7
14
14
35
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
463
Total Plays
59
54
Yards / Play
7.3
8.6
EPA / Play
+0.44
+0.35
Passing Yards
372
--
Comp/Att
29/34(85%)
28/34(82%)
Yards / Pass
10.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.76
+0.69
Rushing Yards
56
122
Rush Attempts
24
20
Yards / Rush
2.3
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
27
Passing 1st downs
17
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
64%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.27
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-1.93
--
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
37
56
Penalty EPA
-4.70
-6.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+84
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+60.0
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-6.5
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
6
Yards / Game
17
9
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
6
EPA
EPA / Play
19
2
EPA / Pass
18
13
EPA / Rush
9
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
32
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
28
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
11
RZ Efficiency
25
11
Seahawks Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
6
22
Passing Yards / Game
30
11
Rushing Yards / Game
14
10
EPA
EPA / Play
11
13
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
29
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
20
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
17
4th Down Efficiency
6
8
RZ Efficiency
10
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U