ARICardinals
2-8
16
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
021
HOUTexans
5-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
10
0
6
0
16
Texans
7
14
0
0
21
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
419
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
5.4
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.02
Passing Yards
196
308
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
28/38(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.23
+0.05
Rushing Yards
123
111
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
11
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
30%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.62
-11.82
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-18
-30
Sack EPA
-4.38
-5.43
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-1.46
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,351
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-33.5
Home QB Adjustment
+29.4
Away QB Adjustment
+62.9
Market Regression
+14.9
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+62.9
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+29.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
11
Yards / Game
19
15
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
3
8
EPA
EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
27
16
EPA / Rush
2
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
15
Interceptions / Game
15
15
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
20
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
28
18
RZ Efficiency
5
15
Texans Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
31
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
21
3
Rushing Yards / Game
28
32
EPA
EPA / Play
14
31
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
27
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
32
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
16
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U