INDColts
5-2
24
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
52°F
18 mph
26
PHIEagles
4-3
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
52°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
17
0
7
24
Eagles
13
3
3
7
26
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
338
402
Total Plays
73
63
Yards / Play
4.6
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.18
Passing Yards
276
207
Comp/Att
31/51(61%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.21
Rushing Yards
62
195
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
19
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
6
2
3rd Down %
43%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.79
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-18
-11
Sack EPA
+0.55
-1.88
Penalties
7
14
Penalty Yards
59
125
Penalty EPA
-4.50
-14.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
Colts+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-11
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,614
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.7
Home QB Adjustment
-17.8
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
+10.1
Final Difference
25.4
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-17.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
21
Yards / Game
6
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
23
Rushing Yards / Game
29
15
EPA
EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
4
23
EPA / Rush
13
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
4
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
21
4th Down Efficiency
7
9
RZ Efficiency
1
32
Eagles Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
23
Yards / Game
2
20
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
5
27
EPA
EPA / Play
5
29
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
1
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
31
Interceptions / Game
12
30
Fumbles / Game
20
21
Turnover EPA / Game
25
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
23
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U