INDColts
4-8
36
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
039
MINVikings
10-3
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
11
10
3
0
0
24
Vikings
0
0
14
22
3
39
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
520
Total Plays
79
87
Yards / Play
4.3
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.20
Passing Yards
170
428
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
34/56(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.04
Rushing Yards
171
92
Rush Attempts
43
24
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.56
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
32
Passing 1st downs
11
22
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
32%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
19
15
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.90
-14.91
Sacks
3
7
Sack Yards
-12
-34
Sack EPA
-2.93
-9.89
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
103
74
Penalty EPA
-10.62
+0.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+84
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+1.8
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-11.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
30
Yards / Game
27
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
26
Rushing Yards / Game
23
21
EPA
EPA / Play
32
26
EPA / Pass
30
27
EPA / Rush
30
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
32
12
Fumbles / Game
32
24
Turnover EPA / Game
1
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
15
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Vikings Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
28
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
3
18
Rushing Yards / Game
29
20
EPA
EPA / Play
17
10
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
28
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
2
Interceptions / Game
21
24
Fumbles / Game
18
10
Turnover EPA / Game
10
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
17
RZ Efficiency
8
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U