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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ broncos week 21, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NE logo
NEPatriots
16-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0
DENBroncos
15-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model61.6%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-35
Home nfelo
1,623
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+59.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-111.0
Home QB Adjustment
-89.1
Away QB Adjustment
+21.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-82.3
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+21.9
Value
Ptile
11/09
-1.1
42
11/13
3.4
75
11/23
0.5
56
12/01
2.9
72
12/14
0.6
57
12/21
4.5
80
12/28
10.9
98
01/04
3.3
75
01/11
0.5
56
01/18
-2.3
35
J. Stidham headshot

J. Stidham

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-89.1
Value
Ptile
01/01
7.9
93
01/07
-5.3
15
12/31
-1.3
41
01/07
-5.7
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Patriots logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
2
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
4

EPA

EPA / Play
6
10
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
22
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
32
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
21
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
14
RZ Efficiency
22
2
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Broncos logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
13
3
Yards / Game
10
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
18
Rushing Yards / Game
19
5

EPA

EPA / Play
15
5
EPA / Pass
10
7
EPA / Rush
16
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
7
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
3
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
2
RZ Efficiency
20
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
5
W
W
O
11/13
13
W
W
U
11/23
6
W
L
U
12/01
18
W
W
O
12/14
-4
L
L
O
12/21
4
W
W
O
12/28
32
W
W
O
01/04
28
W
W
O
01/11
13
W
W
U
01/18
12
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
3
W
W
U
11/06
3
W
L
U
11/16
3
W
W
U
11/30
1
W
L
O
12/07
7
W
L
O
12/14
8
W
W
O
12/21
-14
L
L
O
12/25
7
W
L
U
01/04
16
W
W
U
01/17
3
W
W
O