OAKRaiders
1-0
35
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
5 mph
38
BUFBills
1-0
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
21
0
14
35
Bills
0
3
14
21
38
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
454
481
Total Plays
63
71
Yards / Play
7.2
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.34
Passing Yards
--
258
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
28/46(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.64
+0.22
Rushing Yards
131
223
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
4.4
9.3
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
34
Passing 1st downs
17
17
Rushing 1st downs
9
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
67%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.87
-2.89
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-1.13
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
85
26
Penalty EPA
-7.38
-2.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model63.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+133
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+10.7
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
+1.5
Market Regression
-7.5
Final Difference
97.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
30
Yards / Game
9
25
Passing Yards / Game
26
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28
EPA
EPA / Play
10
26
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
8
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
11
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
21
4th Down Efficiency
8
31
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Bills Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
14
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
27
EPA
EPA / Play
17
30
EPA / Pass
19
25
EPA / Rush
6
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
31
10
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
25
4th Down Efficiency
16
5
RZ Efficiency
11
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U