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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ bills week 14, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAR logo
LARRams
5-6
15
TBD
New Era Field
37°F
14 mph
12
BUFBills
5-7
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
37°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
7
8
15
Bills
3
3
6
0
12

Spread

LAR logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
287
281
Total Plays
68
59
Yards / Play
4.2
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.15
Passing Yards
209
220
Comp/Att
19/40(48%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.02
Rushing Yards
78
61
Rush Attempts
27
20
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
41%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.04
-6.62
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-2
-27
Sack EPA
-1.12
-6.21
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.8
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+18.9
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
Value
Ptile
09/23
-11.5
1
09/30
-3.9
25
10/04
-4.4
23
10/14
5.8
86
10/21
-1.9
37
10/28
-1.8
38
11/11
4.9
81
11/18
-1.2
41
11/25
-1.2
41
12/02
2.7
67
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Value
Ptile
09/23
4.4
78
09/30
-1.4
40
10/07
-4.6
22
10/14
-3.2
28
10/21
5.5
84
11/04
-0.1
50
11/11
2.6
66
11/15
-3.1
29
11/25
-4.9
20
12/02
-0.4
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Bills Defense
Rams logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
25
26
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
16
7
Rushing Yards / Game
20
31

EPA

EPA / Play
25
28
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
22
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
23
Interceptions / Game
12
20
Fumbles / Game
9
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
32
4th Down Efficiency
15
18
RZ Efficiency
19
31
Bills Offense vs Rams Defense
Bills logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
19
13
Passing Yards / Game
28
18
Rushing Yards / Game
6
15

EPA

EPA / Play
20
13
EPA / Pass
21
9
EPA / Rush
10
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
20
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
31
32
Turnover EPA / Game
5
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
7
6
RZ Efficiency
22
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-17
L
L
U
09/30
6
W
W
U
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/21
-10
L
L
O
10/28
-38
L
L
O
11/11
0
T
W
O
11/18
-14
L
L
O
11/25
14
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
10
W
W
U
09/30
-24
L
L
O
10/07
-42
L
L
O
10/14
3
W
W
U
10/21
-1
L
L
O
11/04
-12
L
L
U
11/11
-6
L
W
O
11/15
5
W
W
U
11/25
-7
L
L
U
12/02
16
W
W
O