LARRams
5-6
15
TBD
New Era Field
37°F
14 mph
12
BUFBills
5-7
TBD
New Era Field
37°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
7
8
15
Bills
3
3
6
0
12
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
287
281
Total Plays
68
59
Yards / Play
4.2
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.15
Passing Yards
209
220
Comp/Att
19/40(48%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.02
Rushing Yards
78
61
Rush Attempts
27
20
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
41%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.04
-6.62
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-2
-27
Sack EPA
-1.12
-6.21
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,417
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.8
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+18.9
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
26
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
16
7
Rushing Yards / Game
20
31
EPA
EPA / Play
25
28
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
22
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
23
Interceptions / Game
12
20
Fumbles / Game
9
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
32
4th Down Efficiency
15
18
RZ Efficiency
19
31
Bills Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
19
13
Passing Yards / Game
28
18
Rushing Yards / Game
6
15
EPA
EPA / Play
20
13
EPA / Pass
21
9
EPA / Rush
10
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
20
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
31
32
Turnover EPA / Game
5
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
7
6
RZ Efficiency
22
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U