NOSaints
0-1
24
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
61°F
6 mph
26
CLEBrowns
0-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
61°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
10
7
7
24
Browns
10
0
7
3
20
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
324
Total Plays
69
73
Yards / Play
5.8
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.05
Passing Yards
223
202
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.01
Rushing Yards
174
122
Rush Attempts
27
31
Yards / Rush
6.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.28
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
54%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.63
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-2
Sack EPA
-4.03
-0.53
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
39
30
Penalty EPA
-5.91
-2.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-104
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-31.5
Home QB Adjustment
-20.2
Away QB Adjustment
+11.3
Market Regression
+10.1
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-20.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
9
Yards / Game
1
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
32
EPA
EPA / Play
6
8
EPA / Pass
8
3
EPA / Rush
7
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
25
2
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
13
29
RZ Efficiency
7
6
Browns Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
28
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
25
Rushing Yards / Game
16
29
EPA
EPA / Play
27
32
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
23
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
23
Interceptions / Game
19
22
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
25
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
31
4th Down Efficiency
27
19
RZ Efficiency
23
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U