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  1. nfelo...
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  3. saints @ browns week 2, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
0-1
24
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
61°F
6 mph
26
CLEBrowns
0-1
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
61°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
10
7
7
24
Browns
10
0
7
3
20

Spread

CLE logo
+5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
397
324
Total Plays
69
73
Yards / Play
5.8
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.05
Passing Yards
223
202
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.01
Rushing Yards
174
122
Rush Attempts
27
31
Yards / Rush
6.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.28
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
54%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.63
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-2
Sack EPA
-4.03
-0.53
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
39
30
Penalty EPA
-5.91
-2.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-98
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-31.5
Home QB Adjustment
-20.2
Away QB Adjustment
+11.3
Market Regression
+0.4
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Value
Ptile
11/17
3.4
73
11/21
2.9
69
12/02
0.1
50
12/08
9.5
95
12/15
3.2
72
12/22
-4.0
25
12/29
14.1
99
01/04
-2.5
36
01/11
4.4
81
09/07
3.7
75
B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-20.2
Value
Ptile
12/30
-1.9
37
09/22
-3.7
26
09/29
3.1
71
10/03
-3.9
25
09/07
-1.8
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Browns Defense
Saints logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
10
9
Yards / Game
1
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
32

EPA

EPA / Play
6
8
EPA / Pass
8
3
EPA / Rush
7
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
25
2
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
13
29
RZ Efficiency
7
6
Browns Offense vs Saints Defense
Browns logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
27
28
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
25
Rushing Yards / Game
16
29

EPA

EPA / Play
27
32
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
23
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
23
Interceptions / Game
19
22
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
25
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
31
4th Down Efficiency
27
19
RZ Efficiency
23
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
3
W
L
U
11/21
4
W
L
U
12/02
-27
L
L
U
12/08
18
W
W
U
12/15
-11
L
L
U
12/22
-4
L
L
U
12/29
25
W
W
O
01/04
2
W
W
U
01/11
-8
L
W
U
09/07
-3
L
L
O
CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
-6
L
W
O
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/17
-21
L
L
O
11/24
-16
L
L
U
12/01
-4
L
L
O
12/08
-1
L
W
O
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/22
-11
L
L
U
12/29
-13
L
L
U
09/07
-3
L
W
O