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DET logo

Detroit Lions

2018 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-10
nfelo Rating
139124th
Point Diff / Game
-2.321st
Net EPA / Play
-0.03920th

2018 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
17-48
-31
-7
L
-22
2
SF logo
SF@
L
27-30
-3
+6
W
12
3
NE logo
NE
W
26-10
+16
+7
W
14
4
DAL logo
DAL@
L
24-26
-2
+2.5
W
8
5
GB logo
GB
W
31-23
+8
-1
W
-4
6BYE WEEK
7
MIA logo
MIA@
W
32-21
+11
-3
W
11
8
SEA logo
SEA
L
14-28
-14
-3
L
-10
9
MIN logo
MIN@
L
09-24
-15
+5
L
-38
10
CHI logo
CHI@
L
22-34
-12
+7
L
-25
11
CAR logo
CAR
W
20-19
+1
+4
W
5
12
CHI logo
CHI
L
16-23
-7
+3
L
-54
13
LAR logo
LAR
L
16-30
-14
+10
L
-15
14
ARI logo
ARI@
W
17-03
+14
-2.5
W
45
15
BUF logo
BUF@
L
13-14
-1
+2.5
W
-7
16
MIN logo
MIN
L
09-27
-18
+6.5
L
-39
17
GB logo
GB@
W
31-00
+31
+7.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.06
23rd
EPA / Pass
-0.02
22nd
EPA / Rush
-0.10
25th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.03
15th
EPA / Pass
+0.08
24th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
18th
Sack EPA
-4.72
19th
Turnover EPA
-5.57
17th
Point Differential
-2.3
21st
Points For
20.3
25th
Points Against
22.5
16th
Total Yards
327.3
24th
Passing Yards
191.8
20th
Rushing Yards
103.8
23rd
Total Yards Allowed
335.3
9th
Passing Allowed
225.2
25th
Rushing Allowed
110.1
11th

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
25th
4th Down
61%
9th
Red Zone
52%
25th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
12th
4th Down
53%
11th
Red Zone
55%
11th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
16th
Created
0.8
31st

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
14th
Created
0.4
29th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
18th
Created
0.3
28th