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  4. 2009
KC logo

Kansas City Chiefs

2009 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-12
nfelo Rating
128330th
Point Diff / Game
-8.127th
Net EPA / Play
-0.13927th

2009 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
BAL logo
BAL@
L
24-38
-14
+13
L
60
2
OAK logo
OAK
L
10-13
-3
-3
L
-8
3
PHI logo
PHI@
L
14-34
-20
+7.5
L
-15
4
NYG logo
NYG
L
16-27
-11
+9
L
-20
5
DAL logo
DAL
L
20-26
-6
+7
W
-6
6
WAS logo
WAS@
W
14-06
+8
+6
W
9
7
LAC logo
LAC
L
07-37
-30
+5.5
L
-47
8BYE WEEK
9
JAX logo
JAX@
L
21-24
-3
+7
W
7
10
OAK logo
OAK@
W
16-10
+6
+2.5
W
3
11
PIT logo
PIT
W
27-24
+3
+11.5
W
10
12
LAC logo
LAC@
L
14-43
-29
+13
L
-7
13
DEN logo
DEN
L
13-44
-31
+6.5
L
-45
14
BUF logo
BUF
L
10-16
-6
+2.5
L
-23
15
CLE logo
CLE
L
34-41
-7
-2.5
L
4
16
CIN logo
CIN@
L
10-17
-7
+13.5
W
15
17
DEN logo
DEN@
W
44-24
+20
+9
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.10
26th
EPA / Pass
-0.17
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.12
26th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.04
25th
EPA / Pass
+0.05
18th
EPA / Rush
-0.00
27th
Sack EPA
-4.40
24th
Turnover EPA
-6.62
18th
Point Differential
-8.1
27th
Points For
18.4
23rd
Points Against
26.5
29th
Total Yards
302.1
25th
Passing Yards
169.4
20th
Rushing Yards
119.8
12th
Total Yards Allowed
388.1
30th
Passing Allowed
169.6
8th
Rushing Allowed
156.5
30th

Conversions For

3rd Down
27%
31st
4th Down
48%
17th
Red Zone
47%
23rd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
14th
4th Down
55%
24th
Red Zone
56%
22nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.7
16th
Created
1.8
10th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
18th
Created
0.9
16th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
13th
Created
0.8
7th