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  4. 2015
KC logo

Kansas City Chiefs

2015 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
12-6
nfelo Rating
16266th
Point Diff / Game
+7.85th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1483rd

2015 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
HOU logo
HOU@
W
27-20
+7
-1
W
13
2
DEN logo
DEN
L
24-31
-7
-3
L
-13
3
GB logo
GB@
L
28-38
-10
+5.5
L
-9
4
CIN logo
CIN@
L
21-36
-15
+3.5
L
-4
5
CHI logo
CHI
L
17-18
-1
-9.5
L
-11
6
MIN logo
MIN@
L
10-16
-6
+3.5
L
0
7
PIT logo
PIT
W
23-13
+10
-3
W
7
8
DET logo
DET
W
45-10
+35
-3
W
21
9BYE WEEK
10
DEN logo
DEN@
W
29-13
+16
+4
W
12
11
LAC logo
LAC@
W
33-03
+30
-3
W
18
12
BUF logo
BUF
W
30-22
+8
-4.5
W
8
13
OAK logo
OAK@
W
34-20
+14
-3
W
8
14
LAC logo
LAC
W
10-03
+7
-12
L
-7
15
BAL logo
BAL@
W
34-14
+20
-6.5
W
7
16
CLE logo
CLE
W
17-13
+4
-11.5
L
-18
17
OAK logo
OAK
W
23-17
+6
-6.5
L
-2
18
HOU logo
HOU@
W
30-00
+30
-3
W
43
19
NE logo
NE@
L
20-27
-7
+6
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.05
5th
EPA / Pass
+0.01
15th
EPA / Rush
+0.02
1st
Def. EPA / Play
-0.10
5th
EPA / Pass
-0.13
3rd
EPA / Rush
-0.12
9th
Sack EPA
-4.04
14th
Turnover EPA
-3.90
30th
Point Differential
+7.8
5th
Points For
25.3
9th
Points Against
17.4
1st
Total Yards
333.1
25th
Passing Yards
204.2
19th
Rushing Yards
128.9
6th
Total Yards Allowed
324.4
6th
Passing Allowed
186.4
7th
Rushing Allowed
95.8
6th

Conversions For

3rd Down
40%
12th
4th Down
64%
2nd
Red Zone
57%
12th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
35%
5th
4th Down
46%
15th
Red Zone
60%
22nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.9
2nd
Created
1.9
2nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.4
1st
Created
1.4
2nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
7th
Created
0.5
23rd