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KC logo

Kansas City Chiefs

2016 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
12-5
nfelo Rating
16413rd
Point Diff / Game
+4.54th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0735th

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
LAC logo
LAC
W
33-27
+6
-6.5
L
3
2
HOU logo
HOU@
L
12-19
-7
-25
3
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
24-03
+21
-3
W
12
4
PIT logo
PIT@
L
14-43
-29
+3.5
L
-20
5BYE WEEK
6
OAK logo
OAK@
W
26-10
+16
-2
W
10
7
NO logo
NO
W
27-21
+6
-6.5
L
-1
8
IND logo
IND@
W
30-14
+16
-3
W
-57
9
JAX logo
JAX
W
19-14
+5
-7
L
76
10
CAR logo
CAR@
W
20-17
+3
+3
W
1
11
TB logo
TB
L
17-19
-2
-7
L
-16
12
DEN logo
DEN@
W
30-27
+3
+3.5
W
2
13
ATL logo
ATL@
W
29-28
+1
+5
W
11
14
OAK logo
OAK
W
21-13
+8
-3.5
W
12
15
TEN logo
TEN
L
17-19
-2
-6
L
-21
16
DEN logo
DEN
W
33-10
+23
-3.5
W
30
17
LAC logo
LAC@
W
37-27
+10
-6
W
25
18BYE WEEK
19
PIT logo
PIT
L
16-18
-2
-2
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.01
12th
EPA / Pass
+0.06
16th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
12th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.06
9th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
7th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
24th
Sack EPA
-3.15
6th
Turnover EPA
-4.68
22nd
Point Differential
+4.5
4th
Points For
23.8
13th
Points Against
19.4
6th
Total Yards
336.4
21st
Passing Yards
187.6
21st
Rushing Yards
106.4
19th
Total Yards Allowed
369.8
23rd
Passing Allowed
208.1
17th
Rushing Allowed
124.1
27th

Conversions For

3rd Down
37%
20th
4th Down
75%
4th
Red Zone
47%
28th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
28th
4th Down
50%
15th
Red Zone
46%
4th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
11th
Created
1.9
1st

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
8th
Created
1.1
3rd

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
23rd
Created
0.8
1st