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KC logo

Kansas City Chiefs

2017 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
10-7
nfelo Rating
16104th
Point Diff / Game
+4.410th
Net EPA / Play
+0.09010th

2017 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NE logo
NE@
W
42-27
+15
+8
W
24
2
PHI logo
PHI
W
27-20
+7
-4.5
W
10
3
LAC logo
LAC@
W
24-10
+14
-3
W
4
4
WAS logo
WAS
W
29-20
+9
-6.5
W
9
5
HOU logo
HOU@
W
42-34
+8
-2
W
32
6
PIT logo
PIT
L
13-19
-6
-3.5
L
-33
7
OAK logo
OAK@
L
30-31
-1
-3
L
2
8
DEN logo
DEN
W
29-19
+10
-7
W
10
9
DAL logo
DAL@
L
17-28
-11
+2.5
L
-9
10BYE WEEK
11
NYG logo
NYG@
L
09-12
-3
-10
L
-18
12
BUF logo
BUF
L
10-16
-6
-9
L
-15
13
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
31-38
-7
-4
L
5
14
OAK logo
OAK
W
26-15
+11
-4.5
W
-5
15
LAC logo
LAC
W
30-13
+17
16
16
MIA logo
MIA
W
29-13
+16
-11
W
-102
17
DEN logo
DEN@
W
27-24
+3
+3
W
123
18
TEN logo
TEN
L
21-22
-1
-9
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.08
3rd
EPA / Pass
+0.17
5th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
5th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.01
24th
EPA / Pass
+0.02
19th
EPA / Rush
-0.01
28th
Sack EPA
-3.51
11th
Turnover EPA
-2.21
32nd
Point Differential
+4.4
10th
Points For
25.6
7th
Points Against
21.2
15th
Total Yards
372.5
6th
Passing Yards
256.5
3rd
Rushing Yards
116.0
10th
Total Yards Allowed
367.4
29th
Passing Allowed
158.2
2nd
Rushing Allowed
123.3
28th

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
14th
4th Down
27%
29th
Red Zone
45%
29th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
41%
26th
4th Down
53%
20th
Red Zone
55%
18th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.8
2nd
Created
1.5
10th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
3rd
Created
1.0
9th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
5th
Created
0.5
21st