SF49ers
2-4
33
TBD
Soldier Field
53°F
12 mph
22
CHIBears
3-4
TBD
Soldier Field
53°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
6
6
18
33
Bears
3
10
3
6
22
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
469
324
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
8.5
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
148
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.54
+0.10
Rushing Yards
145
176
Rush Attempts
26
36
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.27
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.34
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-27
Sack EPA
--
-5.33
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-8.93
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model64.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-51
Home nfelo
1,457
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+69.5
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+14.6
Net QB Adjustment
-34.0
Home QB Adjustment
-43.2
Away QB Adjustment
-9.1
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
-105.8
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-43.2
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
11
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
6
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22
EPA
EPA / Play
11
16
EPA / Pass
8
20
EPA / Rush
15
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
30
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
11
4th Down Efficiency
24
11
RZ Efficiency
6
14
Bears Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
5
Yards / Game
24
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
15
6
EPA
EPA / Play
27
13
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
18
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
29
26
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
30
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U