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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Model

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Pick'em
    Weekly pick'em sheet
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era
  • QB Compare
    Compare quarterback stats side by side

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Live QB EPA Leaders

Real-time quarterback EPA and advanced stats for today's games

Track which quarterbacks are having the best performances RIGHT NOW with live Expected Points Added (QB EPA) rankings, passing and rushing stats, depth of target, and passer ratings, all updated every 5 minutes throughout Sunday's NFL games.

Looking for season long QB Rankings? View here →

Today's Top Quarterback Performances

This live leaderboard shows quarterback efficiency for the most recent week of NFL games. EPA (Expected Points Added) measures how much value each quarterback creates on every play, accounting for game situation, field position, and down & distance.

Live vs. Season QB Rankings

This page shows this week's performances only. For comprehensive season-long QB analysis:

  • Full Season QB EPA Rankings - Cumulative efficiency across all games with historical data going back to 1999. This page includes a larger collection of metrics including QBR, QB EPA composite breakdowns, and more.
  • Era Adjusted QB Elo - A tool for comparing quarterback performances across all eras of the NFL, correcting for stat inflation to provide and apples to apples comparison of QBs across time.

Understanding Live QB EPA Metrics

Total EPA

The cumulative Expected Points Added by this quarterback in today's game. Positive EPA means the quarterback improved their team's scoring position compared to league average. Elite performances typically exceed +10.0 EPA in a single game.

EPA Per Play

Average EPA generated on each dropback. This rate stat controls for volume and measures pure efficiency:

  • Elite: +0.30 or higher
  • Above Average: +0.10 to +0.29
  • Average: -0.09 to +0.09
  • Below Average: -0.10 or worse

You can read all about EPA and how it's calculated in our complete EPA guide.

Passer Rating (Traditional)

The NFL's standard passer rating formula considering completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions. While less predictive than EPA, rating provides familiar context for traditional stat enthusiasts.

You can learn more about passer ratings and calculators in our passer rating calculator page.

ANYPA (Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt)

Yards per attempt adjusted for sacks and touchdowns. This metric bridges traditional and advanced analytics, giving credit for big plays while penalizing sacks appropriately. It's similar to passer rating, but takes into account other elements of QB performance that matter.

An in-depth guide to QB metrics and which ones are the best can be found in our What are the best metrics for NFL quarterbacks? post.

Completion & Passing Stats

  • Comp%: Completion percentage for today's game
  • Att: Pass attempts (dropbacks)
  • Yards: Total passing yards
  • Y/A: Yards per attempt
  • TD: Passing touchdowns
  • INT: Interceptions thrown

Live Data Updates

The Live QB EPA leaderboard refreshes every 5 minutes during game windows to provide near real-time performance tracking:

  • Thursday Night Football: 8:15 PM EST
  • Sunday Early Window: 1:00 PM EST
  • Sunday Late Window: 4:05-4:25 PM EST
  • Sunday Night Football: 8:20 PM EST
  • Monday Night Football: 8:15 PM EST

Updates run continuously throughout each game, recalculating EPA after every play. The "Last updated" timestamp shows when fresh data was last pulled.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a good EPA per play?

League average EPA per play is meant to be 0.0 by definition. Positive EPA indicates above-average performance, while negative EPA suggests below-average play. Elite offenses typically sustain +0.10 to +0.20 EPA per play.

Since defensive EPA is more dependent on opponent, any negative EPA is considered quite good.

Live QB EPA Leaders

Real-time quarterback EPA and advanced stats

Ratings Total Passing Rushing Composition
QB
Total EPA
EPA/Play
Rating
ANY/A
Total Yds
Total TD
Total TO
Comp
Att
Yards
YPA
TD
INT
Sacks
Att
Yards
YPC
TD
Short%
Deep%
YAC%
Jaxson Dart headshot
J. Dart
NYG
+27.6
+0.674
134.2
9.1
284
3
0
23
29
230
7.9
3
0
2
11
54
4.9
0
83%
17%
48.7%
Trevor Lawrence headshot
T. Lawrence
JAX
+17.9
+0.690
151.5
13.3
253
4
0
18
23
250
10.9
4
0
1
2
3
1.5
0
70%
30%
23.6%
Caleb Williams headshot
C. Williams
CHI
+14.8
+0.360
124.1
9.7
334
4
0
21
29
269
9.3
2
0
2
10
65
6.5
2
72%
28%
30.1%
Bryce Young headshot
B. Young
CAR
+14.8
+0.369
108.6
9.1
350
4
1
22
36
340
9.4
3
1
2
2
10
5.0
1
78%
22%
70.3%
Lamar Jackson headshot
L. Jackson
BAL
+14.4
+0.435
124.2
12.2
364
2
1
17
25
324
13.0
1
0
2
7
40
5.7
1
68%
28%
52.5%
Josh Allen headshot
J. Allen
BUF
+13.3
+0.368
130.5
11.7
357
4
0
20
29
334
11.5
2
0
2
6
23
3.8
2
62%
38%
34.4%
Jacoby Brissett headshot
J. Brissett
ARI
+12.5
+0.290
103.2
7.8
292
1
0
27
37
278
7.5
1
0
1
6
14
2.3
0
87%
14%
36.7%
Dak Prescott headshot
D. Prescott
DAL
+10.3
+0.286
84.8
5.0
189
2
1
22
34
175
5.1
2
1
0
2
14
7.0
0
77%
24%
50.9%
Drew Lock headshot
D. Lock
SEA
+7.7
+0.319
113.3
8.7
200
1
0
16
22
187
8.5
1
0
1
2
13
6.5
0
86%
14%
54.0%
Brock Purdy headshot
B. Purdy
SF
+5.8
+0.150
105.6
6.5
234
3
1
25
34
205
6.0
3
1
0
5
29
5.8
0
94%
6%
54.6%
Geno Smith headshot
G. Smith
NYJ
+5.8
+0.199
104.0
9.0
222
0
0
19
24
215
9.0
0
0
0
6
7
1.2
0
79%
21%
34.4%
Carson Wentz headshot
C. Wentz
MIN
+4.1
+0.159
123.5
8.0
132
3
0
12
19
133
7.0
3
0
3
5
-1
-0.2
0
79%
21%
21.1%
Jalon Daniels headshot
J. Daniels
WAS
+3.7
+0.093
85.9
5.8
195
2
0
18
34
164
4.8
2
0
1
5
31
6.2
0
77%
24%
41.5%
C.J. Stroud headshot
C. Stroud
HOU
+3.3
+0.076
106.7
7.1
289
2
2
26
38
274
7.2
2
0
3
2
15
7.5
0
79%
21%
43.8%
Jalen Hurts headshot
J. Hurts
PHI
+3.2
+0.094
122.2
8.6
249
3
0
14
25
203
8.1
3
0
3
7
46
6.6
0
76%
20%
31.5%
Joe Burrow headshot
J. Burrow
CIN
+2.2
+0.054
89.5
6.1
274
1
1
25
35
254
7.3
1
1
1
5
20
4.0
0
86%
14%
59.4%
Drake Maye headshot
D. Maye
NE
+1.5
+0.036
54.9
1.5
225
1
3
23
33
178
5.4
1
3
3
7
47
6.7
0
82%
18%
60.7%
Kenny Pickett headshot
K. Pickett
CAR
+1.3
+0.643
39.6
0.0
24
0
0
0
1
0
0.0
0
0
0
1
24
24.0
0
100%
0%
Stetson Bennett headshot
S. Bennett
LAR
+1.0
+0.253
75.7
4.3
22
0
0
2
3
13
4.3
0
0
0
1
9
9.0
0
100%
0%
23.1%
Jared Goff headshot
J. Goff
DET
+0.1
+0.003
96.7
6.1
208
2
0
26
39
206
5.3
2
0
1
2
2
1.0
0
82%
15%
48.5%
Tyler Shough headshot
T. Shough
NO
-0.2
-0.003
87.6
5.7
418
3
3
35
56
410
7.3
3
2
5
4
8
2.0
0
82%
16%
26.1%
Kirk Cousins headshot
K. Cousins
OAK
-0.7
-0.020
88.2
4.3
154
3
2
21
30
160
5.3
3
2
0
5
-6
-1.2
0
77%
20%
44.4%
Kyler Murray headshot
K. Murray
MIN
-1.8
-0.256
27.5
-5.4
27
0
1
3
5
18
3.6
0
1
0
2
9
4.5
0
80%
20%
100.0%
S
S.Darnold
SEA
-2.2
-0.725
70.8
2.7
13
0
0
1
2
13
6.5
0
0
1
0
0
0
100%
0%
15.4%
C
C.Johnston
PIT
-2.2
-2.188
39.6
0.0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
100%
0%
Patrick Mahomes headshot
P. Mahomes
KC
-4.7
-0.131
86.0
5.8
207
3
1
15
27
184
6.8
2
1
2
7
23
3.3
1
89%
11%
94.0%
Cam Ward headshot
C. Ward
TEN
-5.6
-0.144
80.2
4.2
161
1
0
19
32
140
4.4
1
0
3
4
21
5.2
0
84%
16%
52.9%
Justin Herbert headshot
J. Herbert
LAC
-5.7
-0.162
83.7
5.4
238
1
1
17
27
209
7.7
1
1
3
5
29
5.8
0
82%
19%
43.1%
Jordan Love headshot
J. Love
GB
-6.3
-0.135
88.1
7.5
387
2
2
21
42
387
9.2
2
1
4
1
0
0.0
0
71%
29%
39.5%
Malik Willis headshot
M. Willis
MIA
-7.3
-0.193
67.2
4.4
261
1
1
15
27
222
8.2
0
1
5
6
39
6.5
1
59%
41%
42.3%
Deshaun Watson headshot
D. Watson
CLE
-9.0
-0.273
97.7
5.9
243
1
1
16
22
205
9.3
1
1
5
6
38
6.3
0
82%
14%
41.5%
Baker Mayfield headshot
B. Mayfield
TB
-13.6
-0.368
98.8
5.9
246
1
3
23
28
216
7.7
0
0
4
5
30
6.0
1
89%
11%
74.5%
Daniel Jones headshot
D. Jones
IND
-14.7
-0.431
72.9
3.8
171
1
1
19
31
167
5.4
1
1
2
1
4
4.0
0
87%
13%
38.3%
Aaron Rodgers headshot
A. Rodgers
PIT
-15.3
-0.347
83.6
5.4
220
1
0
24
40
223
5.6
1
0
2
3
-3
-1.0
0
70%
30%
48.4%
Cooper Rush headshot
C. Rush
ATL
-17.2
-0.661
51.9
1.9
143
1
2
12
22
143
6.5
1
2
4
0
0
0
77%
23%
78.3%
Bo Nix headshot
B. Nix
DEN
-17.3
-0.508
69.2
2.6
133
1
2
17
28
131
4.7
1
1
4
3
2
0.7
0
89%
11%
67.2%
Matthew Stafford headshot
M. Stafford
LAR
-17.5
-0.649
61.4
4.4
155
0
1
15
25
156
6.2
0
1
0
2
-1
-0.5
0
68%
32%
55.1%