SF49ers
1-0
41
TBD
Paycor Stadium
81°F
5 mph
17
CINBengals
0-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
81°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
14
10
10
7
41
Bengals
7
3
0
7
17
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
571
316
Total Plays
68
65
Yards / Play
8.4
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.32
-0.14
Passing Yards
--
291
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.69
+0.14
Rushing Yards
259
25
Rush Attempts
42
19
Yards / Rush
6.2
1.3
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
14
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
13
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
56%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
18
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.34
-2.54
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-5.31
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
75
--
Penalty EPA
-6.97
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model53.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+88.5
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.9
Net QB Adjustment
+10.5
Home QB Adjustment
+7.5
Away QB Adjustment
-3.1
Market Regression
+3.2
Final Difference
23.9
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
9
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32
EPA
EPA / Play
4
30
EPA / Pass
5
29
EPA / Rush
8
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
9
Interceptions / Game
20
21
Fumbles / Game
26
25
Turnover EPA / Game
13
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
25
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
19
4
Bengals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
7
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
11
2
Rushing Yards / Game
25
12
EPA
EPA / Play
25
3
EPA / Pass
29
2
EPA / Rush
22
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
23
7
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
2
4th Down Efficiency
12
8
RZ Efficiency
29
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
4-4-2
O/U