SF49ers
1-1
13
TBD
Paycor Stadium
71°F
2 mph
8
CINBengals
1-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
71°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
0
3
10
13
Bengals
3
0
0
3
6
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
226
228
Total Plays
64
53
Yards / Play
3.5
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.29
Passing Yards
176
149
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.46
Rushing Yards
50
79
Rush Attempts
29
20
Yards / Rush
1.7
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.32
-6.80
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-25
-8
Sack EPA
-6.05
-1.31
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
70
40
Penalty EPA
-6.88
-5.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model60.0%
Spread Pick
Bengals-1.0
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-1.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+0.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
70.7
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
12
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
29
19
Rushing Yards / Game
8
12
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
14
11
EPA / Rush
17
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
27
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
8
9
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
14
4th Down Efficiency
3
8
RZ Efficiency
30
29
Bengals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
2
Yards / Game
22
7
Passing Yards / Game
19
29
Rushing Yards / Game
21
1
EPA
EPA / Play
19
1
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
7
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
25
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U