SF49ers
6-6
26
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
9 mph
23
CINBengals
7-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
49ers
3
14
3
0
6
26
Bengals
3
3
0
14
3
23
Spread
-2.5
Total
PUSH
49
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
355
397
Total Plays
69
65
Yards / Play
5.1
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.06
Passing Yards
255
311
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.32
Rushing Yards
100
86
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+8.73
--
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-41
-37
Sack EPA
-7.04
-8.94
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
40
19
Penalty EPA
-4.04
-2.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-17
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+37.5
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
-13.6
Net QB Adjustment
-0.7
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+2.2
Market Regression
-54.7
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
13
Yards / Game
11
19
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
7
7
EPA
EPA / Play
11
10
EPA / Pass
8
14
EPA / Rush
15
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
1
Interceptions / Game
20
8
Fumbles / Game
30
8
Turnover EPA / Game
19
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
24
2
RZ Efficiency
6
17
Bengals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
3
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6
EPA
EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
22
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
21
4th Down Efficiency
5
5
RZ Efficiency
23
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U