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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ bills week 6, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
1-4
16
TBD
New Era Field
72°F
22 mph
45
BUFBills
3-2
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
72°F
22 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
10
0
3
16
Bills
7
10
7
21
45

Spread

BUF logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
300
492
Total Plays
60
74
Yards / Play
5.0
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.22
Passing Yards
167
179
Comp/Att
13/29(45%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.19
Rushing Yards
133
313
Rush Attempts
28
44
Yards / Rush
4.8
7.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
16
29
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
16
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
23%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.03
-10.63
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-4.44
-1.83
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
52
71
Penalty EPA
-8.06
-6.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model80.8%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+23.7%
Cover Probability
64.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+303
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,393
Home Field
+109.5
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+31.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
249.2
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
12/20
9.0
94
12/28
4.7
81
09/14
-0.2
49
09/20
5.0
82
09/27
-10.6
1
10/04
-7.4
6
10/11
3.7
77
10/18
2.3
66
10/22
-9.7
2
11/01
-5.8
12
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Value
Ptile
12/06
6.2
88
12/13
0.6
54
12/20
1.9
64
12/27
-2.6
32
01/03
2.7
71
09/11
-4.4
17
09/15
6.7
89
09/25
-2.4
31
10/02
3.0
72
10/09
-1.9
35

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Bills Defense
49ers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
31
19
Passing Yards / Game
29
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29

EPA

EPA / Play
29
16
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
10
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
13
6
RZ Efficiency
4
11
Bills Offense vs 49ers Defense
Bills logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
32
Yards / Game
16
32
Passing Yards / Game
27
27
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32

EPA

EPA / Play
11
29
EPA / Pass
19
29
EPA / Rush
1
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
10
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
6
W
W
O
12/13
-14
L
L
U
12/20
-10
L
L
U
12/27
-15
L
L
O
01/03
3
W
W
U
09/12
28
W
W
U
09/18
-19
L
L
O
09/25
-19
L
L
O
10/02
-7
L
L
U
10/06
-12
L
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
9
W
W
O
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/20
-10
L
L
O
12/27
10
W
W
U
01/03
5
W
W
U
09/11
-6
L
L
U
09/15
-6
L
L
O
09/25
15
W
W
O
10/02
16
W
W
U
10/09
11
W
W
O