SF49ers
1-4
16
TBD
New Era Field
72°F
22 mph
45
BUFBills
3-2
TBD
New Era Field
72°F
22 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
10
0
3
16
Bills
7
10
7
21
45
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
492
Total Plays
60
74
Yards / Play
5.0
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.22
Passing Yards
167
179
Comp/Att
13/29(45%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.19
Rushing Yards
133
313
Rush Attempts
28
44
Yards / Rush
4.8
7.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
29
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
16
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
23%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.03
-10.63
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-4.44
-1.83
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
52
71
Penalty EPA
-8.06
-6.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
Bills-7.5
Expected Value
+23.7%
Cover Probability
64.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+300
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,394
Home Field
+108.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+30.8
Net QB Adjustment
+4.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
247.5
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
31
19
Passing Yards / Game
29
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29
EPA
EPA / Play
29
16
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
10
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
13
6
RZ Efficiency
4
11
Bills Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
32
Yards / Game
16
32
Passing Yards / Game
27
27
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32
EPA
EPA / Play
11
29
EPA / Pass
19
29
EPA / Rush
1
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
10
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U