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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ broncos week 7, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
4-2
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
67°F
4 mph
42
DENBroncos
4-1
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
67°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
0
7
17
Broncos
14
7
21
0
42

Spread

DEN logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
310
419
Total Plays
70
56
Yards / Play
4.4
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.40
Passing Yards
248
304
Comp/Att
27/46(59%)
22/27(81%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
11.3
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.73
Rushing Yards
62
115
Rush Attempts
18
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
23%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.28
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-53
-14
Sack EPA
-9.61
-3.44
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
62
75
Penalty EPA
-8.91
-8.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+133
Home nfelo
1,681
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+13.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Value
Ptile
12/29
5.9
86
01/05
2.2
66
01/12
2.0
64
01/19
4.5
81
09/07
1.6
63
09/14
-3.4
28
09/21
7.3
89
09/28
-0.7
45
10/05
-3.1
29
10/13
10.4
97
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
Value
Ptile
12/22
10.5
96
12/29
9.1
94
01/12
2.4
67
01/19
11.0
97
02/02
2.2
66
09/07
3.9
77
09/14
6.0
87
09/21
3.4
74
10/05
8.9
94
10/12
3.4
73

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Broncos Defense
49ers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
25
17
Yards / Game
21
3
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2

EPA

EPA / Play
20
10
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
20
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
4
6
Fumbles / Game
19
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
8
26
RZ Efficiency
29
25
Broncos Offense vs 49ers Defense
Broncos logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
10
Yards / Game
5
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7

EPA

EPA / Play
7
18
EPA / Pass
5
15
EPA / Rush
9
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
3
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
5
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
17
19
RZ Efficiency
4
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
3
W
W
O
01/05
3
W
P
U
01/12
13
W
W
U
01/19
-6
L
L
P
09/07
11
W
W
U
09/14
-8
L
L
O
09/21
-9
L
L
U
09/28
5
W
W
U
10/05
5
W
W
U
10/13
14
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
24
W
W
U
12/29
20
W
W
U
01/12
7
W
L
U
01/19
10
W
W
U
02/02
-35
L
L
O
09/07
7
W
L
O
09/14
7
W
L
U
09/21
-6
L
L
U
10/05
21
W
W
O
10/12
14
W
W
O