SF49ers
4-2
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
67°F
4 mph
42
DENBroncos
4-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
67°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
0
7
17
Broncos
14
7
21
0
42
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
310
419
Total Plays
70
56
Yards / Play
4.4
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.40
Passing Yards
248
304
Comp/Att
27/46(59%)
22/27(81%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
11.3
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.73
Rushing Yards
62
115
Rush Attempts
18
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
23%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.28
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-53
-14
Sack EPA
-9.61
-3.44
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
62
75
Penalty EPA
-8.91
-8.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,678
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+13.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
17
Yards / Game
21
3
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2
EPA
EPA / Play
20
10
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
20
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
4
6
Fumbles / Game
19
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
8
26
RZ Efficiency
29
25
Broncos Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
10
Yards / Game
5
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7
EPA
EPA / Play
7
18
EPA / Pass
5
15
EPA / Rush
9
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
3
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
5
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
17
19
RZ Efficiency
4
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U