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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ buccaneers week 15, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
9-4
33
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
7 mph
14
TBBuccaneers
4-9
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
10
3
7
27
Buccaneers
0
7
0
7
14

Spread

SF logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
376
183
Total Plays
71
50
Yards / Play
5.3
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.31
Passing Yards
189
144
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.24
Rushing Yards
187
39
Rush Attempts
40
12
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
22
13
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.40
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-35
Sack EPA
-2.60
-5.46
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
62
27
Penalty EPA
-6.80
-4.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-131
Home nfelo
1,421
Away nfelo
1,653
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
-9.7
Away QB Adjustment
-14.3
Market Regression
+15.1
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.3
Value
Ptile
09/26
0.2
51
10/06
-2.0
39
10/13
1.0
57
10/20
3.9
77
10/27
6.9
90
11/10
-11.4
2
11/17
-2.9
33
11/25
3.0
71
12/01
1.1
58
12/08
-2.1
38
M. Glennon headshot

M. Glennon

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Value
Ptile
09/29
-6.0
14
10/13
0.7
55
10/20
0.6
54
10/24
-0.2
48
11/03
2.3
66
11/11
-5.4
17
11/17
3.4
73
11/24
-2.6
35
12/01
-6.9
11
12/08
-7.1
11

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
49ers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
24
17
Passing Yards / Game
26
12
Rushing Yards / Game
3
15

EPA

EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
7
18
EPA / Rush
17
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
26
20
Turnover EPA / Game
31
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
18
4th Down Efficiency
5
23
RZ Efficiency
16
9
Buccaneers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Buccaneers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
15
Rushing Yards / Game
22
4

EPA

EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
26
7
EPA / Rush
24
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
22
Interceptions / Game
9
13
Fumbles / Game
17
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
10
4th Down Efficiency
24
13
RZ Efficiency
22
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
24
W
W
O
10/06
31
W
W
U
10/13
12
W
W
O
10/20
14
W
W
O
10/27
32
W
W
O
11/10
-1
L
L
U
11/17
-3
L
W
U
11/25
21
W
W
U
12/01
10
W
W
U
12/08
2
W
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-3
L
L
U
10/13
-11
L
L
O
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/24
-18
L
L
O
11/03
-3
L
W
O
11/11
3
W
W
O
11/17
13
W
W
O
11/24
3
W
W
U
12/01
-21
L
L
U
12/08
21
W
W
U