SF49ers
9-4
33
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
7 mph
14
TBBuccaneers
4-9
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
10
3
7
27
Buccaneers
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
376
183
Total Plays
71
50
Yards / Play
5.3
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.31
Passing Yards
189
144
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.24
Rushing Yards
187
39
Rush Attempts
40
12
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
13
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.40
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-35
Sack EPA
-2.60
-5.46
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
62
27
Penalty EPA
-6.80
-4.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-128
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,655
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
-9.7
Away QB Adjustment
-14.3
Market Regression
+15.1
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.3
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
24
17
Passing Yards / Game
26
12
Rushing Yards / Game
3
15
EPA
EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
7
18
EPA / Rush
17
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
26
20
Turnover EPA / Game
31
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
18
4th Down Efficiency
5
23
RZ Efficiency
16
9
Buccaneers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
15
Rushing Yards / Game
22
4
EPA
EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
26
7
EPA / Rush
24
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
22
Interceptions / Game
9
13
Fumbles / Game
17
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
10
4th Down Efficiency
24
13
RZ Efficiency
22
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U