SF49ers
-
20
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
016
ARICardinals
-
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
6
7
0
7
20
Cardinals
0
6
7
3
16
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
203
299
Total Plays
60
64
Yards / Play
3.4
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.22
Passing Yards
182
259
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
26/44(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.22
Rushing Yards
21
40
Rush Attempts
25
17
Yards / Rush
0.8
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.48
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
17
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
39%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.75
-6.68
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-27
-29
Sack EPA
-7.97
-3.17
Penalties
4
12
Penalty Yards
--
82
Penalty EPA
--
-8.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+145
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.0
Home QB Adjustment
+16.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
-55.0
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
K. Warner
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
20
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
24
16
EPA
EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
21
15
EPA / Rush
20
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
10
8
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
6
18
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
4
Yards / Game
12
15
Passing Yards / Game
8
9
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6
EPA
EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
13
5
EPA / Rush
19
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
31
1
Turnover EPA / Game
5
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
10
4th Down Efficiency
13
4
RZ Efficiency
1
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
0-0-10
O/U