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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ cardinals week 5, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
2-2
10
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
17
ARICardinals
4-0
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
0
7
3
10
Cardinals
7
3
0
7
17

Spread

ARI logo
-5.5

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
338
304
Total Plays
59
60
Yards / Play
5.7
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.08
Passing Yards
186
210
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.00
Rushing Yards
152
94
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
27%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.60
-4.93
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-6
-29
Sack EPA
-5.87
-3.97
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
60
62
Penalty EPA
-5.45
-10.69

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model63.1%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+37.7
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+41.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.3
Away QB Adjustment
-21.7
Market Regression
-9.5
Final Difference
93.5
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

T. Lance headshot

T. Lance

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-21.7
No recent game data available
K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
Value
Ptile
11/29
-2.9
24
12/06
-1.0
38
12/13
3.7
71
12/20
11.0
97
12/26
0.1
47
01/03
-4.3
18
09/12
5.6
86
09/19
8.9
95
09/26
4.4
81
10/03
5.4
85

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
15
16
Yards / Game
11
12
Passing Yards / Game
26
10
Rushing Yards / Game
7
21

EPA

EPA / Play
11
9
EPA / Pass
8
15
EPA / Rush
15
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
15
Interceptions / Game
20
19
Fumbles / Game
30
2
Turnover EPA / Game
19
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
13
4th Down Efficiency
24
9
RZ Efficiency
6
22
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
5
Yards / Game
9
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
19
Rushing Yards / Game
14
6

EPA

EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
11
13
EPA / Rush
12
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
24
Interceptions / Game
10
26
Fumbles / Game
1
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
14
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
3
W
W
U
12/07
-10
L
L
O
12/13
-8
L
L
U
12/20
-8
L
L
O
12/26
8
W
W
U
01/03
-3
L
W
O
09/12
8
W
L
O
09/19
6
W
W
U
09/26
-2
L
L
O
10/03
-7
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-3
L
L
U
12/06
-10
L
L
O
12/13
19
W
W
U
12/20
7
W
W
O
12/26
-8
L
L
U
01/03
-11
L
L
U
09/12
25
W
W
U
09/19
1
W
L
O
09/26
12
W
W
U
10/03
17
W
W
O