SF49ers
7-0
28
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
025
ARICardinals
3-4
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
14
7
0
28
Cardinals
7
0
7
11
25
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
411
359
Total Plays
69
51
Yards / Play
6.0
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.16
Passing Yards
310
206
Comp/Att
28/37(76%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.59
+0.22
Rushing Yards
101
153
Rush Attempts
31
23
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
65%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
11
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
8
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-37
Sack EPA
-1.95
-6.19
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
75
65
Penalty EPA
-7.60
-6.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model77.0%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+10.0
Expected Value
+9.0%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-176
Home nfelo
1,363
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+18.8
Base HFA
+50.8
Divisional Adj
-22.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-9.1
Net QB Adjustment
+15.9
Home QB Adjustment
+12.6
Away QB Adjustment
-3.3
Market Regression
-8.1
Final Difference
-210.3
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
8
32
Passing Yards / Game
15
32
Rushing Yards / Game
2
23
EPA
EPA / Play
4
28
EPA / Pass
5
30
EPA / Rush
8
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
20
30
Fumbles / Game
26
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
1
RZ Efficiency
19
22
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12
EPA
EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
5
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
22
Interceptions / Game
16
7
Fumbles / Game
4
5
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
8
RZ Efficiency
30
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
3-6-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U