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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ cardinals week 12, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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SF logo
SF49ers
3-7
27
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
6
ARICardinals
3-7
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
14
7
3
3
27
Cardinals
3
3
0
0
6

Spread

SF logo
-2

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
386
203
Total Plays
71
47
Yards / Play
5.4
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.44
Passing Yards
125
190
Comp/Att
11/23(48%)
16/35(46%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.31
Rushing Yards
261
13
Rush Attempts
47
11
Yards / Rush
5.6
1.2
EPA / Rush
+0.31
-1.01
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
26
8
Passing 1st downs
6
8
Rushing 1st downs
18
--
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
54%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.18
-11.26
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-6
Sack EPA
-0.92
-1.41
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
--
61
Penalty EPA
--
-9.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-53
Home nfelo
1,401
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.9
Home QB Adjustment
-16.7
Away QB Adjustment
-12.8
Market Regression
-12.6
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

T. Smith headshot

T. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-12.8
Value
Ptile
12/23
0.5
54
12/30
0.7
55
10/31
3.6
73
11/14
1.7
59
11/21
-7.3
9
D. Anderson headshot

D. Anderson

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-16.7
Value
Ptile
11/01
-8.3
7
12/27
-3.7
26
01/03
-6.0
14
09/12
1.2
56
09/19
-7.3
9
09/26
-4.1
23
10/03
-10.2
4
11/07
-4.8
18
11/14
-4.2
22
11/21
0.7
53

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30

EPA

EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
23
19
EPA / Rush
15
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
12
21
RZ Efficiency
25
1
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
31
13
Passing Yards / Game
22
26
Rushing Yards / Game
32
6

EPA

EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
31
18
EPA / Rush
25
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
6
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
17
4th Down Efficiency
24
1
RZ Efficiency
29
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-25
L
L
P
09/20
-3
L
W
O
09/26
-21
L
L
O
10/03
-2
L
W
U
10/10
-3
L
L
O
10/17
8
W
L
U
10/24
-3
L
L
O
10/31
8
W
W
U
11/14
3
W
L
O
11/21
-21
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
4
W
W
U
09/19
-34
L
L
O
09/26
1
W
L
O
10/03
-31
L
L
O
10/10
10
W
W
O
10/24
-12
L
L
U
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/07
-3
L
W
O
11/14
-18
L
L
O
11/21
-18
L
L
U