SF49ers
3-7
27
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
06
ARICardinals
3-7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
14
7
3
3
27
Cardinals
3
3
0
0
6
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
203
Total Plays
71
47
Yards / Play
5.4
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.44
Passing Yards
125
190
Comp/Att
11/23(48%)
16/35(46%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.31
Rushing Yards
261
13
Rush Attempts
47
11
Yards / Rush
5.6
1.2
EPA / Rush
+0.31
-1.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
8
Passing 1st downs
6
8
Rushing 1st downs
18
--
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
54%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.18
-11.26
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-6
Sack EPA
-0.92
-1.41
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
--
61
Penalty EPA
--
-9.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-54
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.9
Home QB Adjustment
-16.7
Away QB Adjustment
-12.8
Market Regression
-12.3
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-12.8
D. Anderson
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-16.7
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30
EPA
EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
23
19
EPA / Rush
15
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
12
21
RZ Efficiency
25
1
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
31
13
Passing Yards / Game
22
26
Rushing Yards / Game
32
6
EPA
EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
31
18
EPA / Rush
25
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
6
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
17
4th Down Efficiency
24
1
RZ Efficiency
29
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U