SF49ers
10-2
19
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
021
ARICardinals
5-7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
9
7
0
19
Cardinals
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
233
325
Total Plays
63
54
Yards / Play
3.7
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.28
Passing Yards
143
270
Comp/Att
18/37(49%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.05
Rushing Yards
90
55
Rush Attempts
21
23
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
12
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
18%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.44
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-32
-14
Sack EPA
-3.53
-3.28
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
35
45
Penalty EPA
-3.06
-4.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-117
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+12.3
Away QB Adjustment
+6.0
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
K. Kolb
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
16
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
29
23
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21
EPA
EPA / Play
12
7
EPA / Pass
14
8
EPA / Rush
17
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
1
26
Fumbles / Game
8
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
30
2
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
2
Yards / Game
19
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
1
EPA
EPA / Play
28
1
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
9
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
7
Interceptions / Game
27
2
Fumbles / Game
12
1
Turnover EPA / Game
4
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U