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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ cardinals week 15, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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SF logo
SF49ers
10-3
45
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
29
ARICardinals
3-10
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
8
7
14
10
39
Cardinals
7
6
3
13
29

Spread

SF logo
-12

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
406
436
Total Plays
54
73
Yards / Play
7.5
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.45
+0.06
Passing Yards
--
202
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
26/40(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.65
-0.18
Rushing Yards
144
234
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
5.5
7.8
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
57%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
7
16
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-12.67
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-2.44
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
28
Penalty EPA
--
-3.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-12.0
Model
-12.0

Win Probability

Market83.8%
Model83.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-304
Home nfelo
1,344
Away nfelo
1,718
Home Field
+45.9
Base HFA
+45.2
Divisional Adj
-20.4
Home Bye Adj
+13.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
+23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+52.1
Away QB Adjustment
+28.4
Market Regression
+32.8
Final Difference
-285.5
Model Spread
+12.0

Quarterbacks

B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+28.4
Value
Ptile
10/01
6.3
88
10/08
8.1
94
10/15
-6.4
12
10/23
-0.9
44
10/29
5.3
83
11/12
5.3
83
11/19
5.5
84
11/23
-1.2
42
12/03
8.3
94
12/10
2.9
69
K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+52.1
Value
Ptile
10/16
-2.1
36
10/20
1.3
61
10/30
2.9
75
11/06
1.6
64
11/27
4.3
82
12/12
-4.4
21
11/12
-1.1
43
11/19
1.7
61
11/26
0.1
49
12/03
-1.9
35

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
2
31
Yards / Game
1
25
Passing Yards / Game
1
3
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32

EPA

EPA / Play
1
31
EPA / Pass
1
31
EPA / Rush
5
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
16
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
32
4th Down Efficiency
13
8
RZ Efficiency
1
23
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
4
Yards / Game
19
9
Passing Yards / Game
24
17
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5

EPA

EPA / Play
18
18
EPA / Pass
27
8
EPA / Rush
2
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
27
Interceptions / Game
15
2
Fumbles / Game
10
28
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
5
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
19
W
W
O
10/08
32
W
W
O
10/15
-2
L
L
P
10/23
-5
L
L
U
10/29
-14
L
L
O
11/12
31
W
W
U
11/19
13
W
L
U
11/23
18
W
W
O
12/03
23
W
W
O
12/10
12
W
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
-19
L
L
O
10/08
-14
L
L
O
10/15
-17
L
L
U
10/22
-10
L
L
U
10/29
-7
L
W
O
11/05
-27
L
L
U
11/12
2
W
W
O
11/19
-5
L
W
U
11/26
-23
L
L
O
12/03
14
W
W
U