SF49ers
10-3
45
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
029
ARICardinals
3-10
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
8
7
14
10
39
Cardinals
7
6
3
13
29
Spread
-12
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
406
436
Total Plays
54
73
Yards / Play
7.5
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.45
+0.06
Passing Yards
--
202
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
26/40(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.65
-0.18
Rushing Yards
144
234
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
5.5
7.8
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
57%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
7
16
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-12.67
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-2.44
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
28
Penalty EPA
--
-3.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-12.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market83.8%
Model83.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-310
Home nfelo
1,342
Away nfelo
1,722
Home Field
+45.9
Base HFA
+45.2
Divisional Adj
-20.4
Home Bye Adj
+13.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
+23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+52.1
Away QB Adjustment
+28.4
Market Regression
+32.8
Final Difference
-285.5
Model Spread
+12.0
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+28.4
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+52.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
31
Yards / Game
1
25
Passing Yards / Game
1
3
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32
EPA
EPA / Play
1
31
EPA / Pass
1
31
EPA / Rush
5
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
16
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
32
4th Down Efficiency
13
8
RZ Efficiency
1
23
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
4
Yards / Game
19
9
Passing Yards / Game
24
17
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5
EPA
EPA / Play
18
18
EPA / Pass
27
8
EPA / Rush
2
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
27
Interceptions / Game
15
2
Fumbles / Game
10
28
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
5
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Cardinals
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U