SF49ers
5-9
20
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
012
ARICardinals
8-6
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
0
7
6
20
Cardinals
3
3
0
6
12
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
350
Total Plays
55
81
Yards / Play
7.2
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.19
Passing Yards
171
230
Comp/Att
13/22(59%)
31/51(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.44
Rushing Yards
227
120
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
7.6
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
11
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
22%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-1.44
-10.15
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-11
-17
Sack EPA
-4.32
-4.03
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
27
--
Penalty EPA
-3.66
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model64.5%
Spread Pick
49ers+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+59.4
Home QB Adjustment
+35.0
Away QB Adjustment
-24.4
Market Regression
-1.5
Final Difference
103.7
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Beathard
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-24.4
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+35.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
21
EPA
EPA / Play
21
9
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
22
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
30
20
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
26
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
17
Yards / Game
6
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
6
8
EPA
EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
3
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
12
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
23
6
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
9
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U