SF49ers
5-8
7
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
56°F
7 mph
34
LACChargers
7-6
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
56°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
0
0
7
7
Chargers
7
10
7
10
34
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
192
374
Total Plays
50
67
Yards / Play
3.8
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.28
Passing Yards
131
266
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
10.6
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.81
Rushing Yards
61
108
Rush Attempts
15
41
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
24
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
17%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.28
--
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-34
-7
Sack EPA
-9.25
-1.64
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
60
35
Penalty EPA
-7.96
-7.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+195
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.8
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
24
1
Passing Yards / Game
20
2
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4
EPA
EPA / Play
24
7
EPA / Pass
23
2
EPA / Rush
15
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
11
Interceptions / Game
13
14
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
4
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
25
28
Chargers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
16
Yards / Game
1
13
Passing Yards / Game
1
26
Rushing Yards / Game
14
6
EPA
EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
1
18
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
12
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U