SF49ers
0-2
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
55°F
10 mph
31
KCChiefs
2-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
55°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
3
0
7
10
Chiefs
0
10
14
7
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
251
457
Total Plays
62
66
Yards / Play
4.0
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.15
Passing Yards
208
--
Comp/Att
23/42(55%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.30
Rushing Yards
43
207
Rush Attempts
15
39
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.37
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
24%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.75
-3.95
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-24
--
Sack EPA
-7.21
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
55
40
Penalty EPA
-7.04
-4.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model51.4%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+3.0
Expected Value
+9.1%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-5.5
Home QB Adjustment
-10.6
Away QB Adjustment
-5.1
Market Regression
-23.1
Final Difference
-9.7
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
14
Yards / Game
24
16
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
16
EPA
EPA / Play
24
18
EPA / Pass
23
17
EPA / Rush
15
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
20
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
6
RZ Efficiency
25
29
Chiefs Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
16
Yards / Game
16
13
Passing Yards / Game
31
26
Rushing Yards / Game
1
6
EPA
EPA / Play
16
13
EPA / Pass
13
18
EPA / Rush
7
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
6
Interceptions / Game
4
17
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
1
RZ Efficiency
7
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
5-3-2
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U