SF49ers
1-1
27
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
4 mph
38
KCChiefs
2-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
14
3
27
Chiefs
14
21
0
3
38
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
384
Total Plays
64
68
Yards / Play
6.4
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.39
Passing Yards
230
307
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.49
Rushing Yards
178
77
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
6.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
31
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
11
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
7
3rd Down %
22%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
67%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-23
-7
Sack EPA
-4.61
-2.22
Penalties
14
6
Penalty Yards
147
48
Penalty EPA
-15.76
-5.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+76.9
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.3
Net QB Adjustment
+12.7
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
-6.0
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
24
Yards / Game
14
31
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
12
27
EPA
EPA / Play
21
25
EPA / Pass
20
16
EPA / Rush
28
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
28
Interceptions / Game
30
9
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
1
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
32
29
Chiefs Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
28
Yards / Game
1
13
Passing Yards / Game
7
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
13
EPA
EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
1
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
10
32
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
21
4th Down Efficiency
4
18
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U