SF49ers
3-3
14
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
018
INDColts
6-0
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
7
0
0
14
Colts
3
6
3
6
18
Spread
+13
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
410
Total Plays
54
74
Yards / Play
5.5
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.03
Passing Yards
182
349
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
32/50(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.09
Rushing Yards
113
61
Rush Attempts
18
21
Yards / Rush
6.3
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
20%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
19
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.07
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-16
-20
Sack EPA
-5.63
-4.61
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
50
38
Penalty EPA
-2.31
-5.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model86.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+373
Home nfelo
1,665
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+92.7
Home QB Adjustment
+30.5
Away QB Adjustment
-62.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
327.7
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-62.2
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+30.5
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
7
Yards / Game
27
18
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20
EPA
EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
20
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
31
Interceptions / Game
10
15
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
2
RZ Efficiency
6
13
Colts Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
8
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
9
Rushing Yards / Game
32
6
EPA
EPA / Play
3
2
EPA / Pass
4
5
EPA / Rush
27
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
12
Interceptions / Game
21
10
Fumbles / Game
1
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
10
4th Down Efficiency
13
4
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-3-4
O/U
Colts
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-3-4
O/U