SF49ers
5-0
9
TBD
FedExField
55°F
12 mph
0
WASCommanders
1-5
TBD
FedExField
55°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
0
3
6
9
Commanders
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
154
Total Plays
62
41
Yards / Play
4.6
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.46
Passing Yards
146
50
Comp/Att
12/21(57%)
9/12(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.06
Rushing Yards
137
104
Rush Attempts
39
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
10
Passing 1st downs
8
4
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.87
-6.12
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-5
-27
Sack EPA
-2.55
-3.51
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
--
47
Penalty EPA
--
-4.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model74.8%
Spread Pick
Commanders+10.0
Expected Value
+15.2%
Cover Probability
57.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-145
Home nfelo
1,322
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+81.2
Base HFA
+52.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+28.4
Net QB Adjustment
-1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+3.4
Market Regression
-2.8
Final Difference
-188.8
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
27
Yards / Game
8
27
Passing Yards / Game
15
23
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31
EPA
EPA / Play
4
29
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
8
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
20
13
Fumbles / Game
26
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
32
4th Down Efficiency
12
30
RZ Efficiency
19
25
Commanders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
31
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
2
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12
EPA
EPA / Play
30
3
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
24
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
22
Interceptions / Game
19
7
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
2
4th Down Efficiency
21
8
RZ Efficiency
27
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U