SF49ers
6-1
19
TBD
FedExField
56°F
6 mph
11
WASCommanders
3-4
TBD
FedExField
56°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
13
3
3
19
Commanders
0
3
0
8
11
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
305
Total Plays
58
64
Yards / Play
5.6
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.20
Passing Yards
188
253
Comp/Att
17/24(71%)
30/48(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.24
Rushing Yards
138
52
Rush Attempts
32
14
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
25%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-3.97
-10.79
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-12
-3
Sack EPA
-3.59
-1.48
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-6.00
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model58.6%
Spread Pick
Commanders+5.0
Expected Value
+15.2%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-7
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-30.0
Home QB Adjustment
-22.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
-8.9
Final Difference
-60.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
J. Beck
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-22.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
29
21
Rushing Yards / Game
8
17
EPA
EPA / Play
12
20
EPA / Pass
14
19
EPA / Rush
17
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
32
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
12
RZ Efficiency
30
6
Commanders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
2
Yards / Game
16
7
Passing Yards / Game
8
29
Rushing Yards / Game
27
1
EPA
EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
22
5
EPA / Rush
15
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
29
2
Fumbles / Game
24
1
Turnover EPA / Game
6
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
28
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U