SF49ers
6-4
27
TBD
FedExField
35°F
12 mph
6
WASCommanders
3-7
TBD
FedExField
35°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
3
14
3
27
Commanders
0
6
0
0
6
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
190
Total Plays
59
58
Yards / Play
5.2
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.42
Passing Yards
228
76
Comp/Att
15/24(63%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
2.9
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.64
Rushing Yards
76
114
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
10
Passing 1st downs
12
4
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
29%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.75
-4.21
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-7
-42
Sack EPA
-2.90
-9.28
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
25
--
Penalty EPA
+0.16
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-127
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,639
Home Field
+28.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+13.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.3
Away QB Adjustment
-17.4
Market Regression
-25.6
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.4
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
30
Yards / Game
24
19
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
3
17
EPA
EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
7
27
EPA / Rush
17
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
26
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
29
RZ Efficiency
16
29
Commanders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
19
15
Rushing Yards / Game
5
4
EPA
EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
22
7
EPA / Rush
11
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
20
13
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
10
4th Down Efficiency
29
13
RZ Efficiency
18
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U