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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ commanders week 12, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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  • Games
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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SF logo
SF49ers
6-4
27
TBD
FedExField
35°F
12 mph
6
WASCommanders
3-7
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
35°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
3
14
3
27
Commanders
0
6
0
0
6

Spread

SF logo
-6

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
304
190
Total Plays
59
58
Yards / Play
5.2
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.42
Passing Yards
228
76
Comp/Att
15/24(63%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
2.9
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.64
Rushing Yards
76
114
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
15
10
Passing 1st downs
12
4
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
29%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.75
-4.21
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-7
-42
Sack EPA
-2.90
-9.28
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
25
--
Penalty EPA
+0.16
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-129
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,638
Home Field
+28.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+13.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.3
Away QB Adjustment
-17.4
Market Regression
-25.6
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.4
Value
Ptile
09/08
10.2
96
09/15
-6.8
12
09/22
-7.9
8
09/26
0.2
51
10/06
-2.0
39
10/13
1.0
57
10/20
3.9
77
10/27
6.9
90
11/10
-11.4
2
11/17
-2.9
33
R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
Value
Ptile
09/09
0.1
50
09/15
4.4
81
09/22
2.0
64
09/29
-0.1
49
10/13
-3.1
31
10/20
7.6
91
10/27
-9.4
4
11/03
1.8
63
11/07
4.1
78
11/17
-2.2
37

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Commanders Defense
49ers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
13
30
Yards / Game
24
19
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
3
17

EPA

EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
7
27
EPA / Rush
17
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
26
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
29
RZ Efficiency
16
29
Commanders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Commanders logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
19
15
Rushing Yards / Game
5
4

EPA

EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
22
7
EPA / Rush
11
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
20
13
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
10
4th Down Efficiency
29
13
RZ Efficiency
18
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
6
W
W
O
09/15
-26
L
L
U
09/22
-20
L
L
U
09/26
24
W
W
O
10/06
31
W
W
U
10/13
12
W
W
O
10/20
14
W
W
O
10/27
32
W
W
O
11/10
-1
L
L
U
11/17
-3
L
W
U
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
-6
L
L
O
09/15
-18
L
L
O
09/22
-7
L
L
U
09/29
10
W
W
U
10/13
-15
L
L
U
10/20
4
W
W
O
10/27
-24
L
L
O
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/07
-7
L
L
O
11/17
-8
L
L
U