SF49ers
-
28
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
017
DALCowboys
-
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
15
7
0
0
22
Cowboys
3
0
7
7
17
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
382
Total Plays
54
63
Yards / Play
5.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.13
Passing Yards
192
255
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.15
Rushing Yards
127
127
Rush Attempts
30
23
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
26
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
58%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-25.45
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-26
Sack EPA
-1.72
-5.56
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
78
72
Penalty EPA
-9.85
-6.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-88
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,630
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-8.7
Home QB Adjustment
-2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
15
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
8
EPA
EPA / Play
20
21
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
20
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
4
12
Fumbles / Game
19
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
29
25
Cowboys Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
10
Yards / Game
9
5
Passing Yards / Game
15
14
Rushing Yards / Game
2
7
EPA
EPA / Play
2
18
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
8
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
3
Interceptions / Game
3
1
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
22
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
19
RZ Efficiency
3
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U