nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ cowboys week 1, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

SF logo
SF49ers
-
28
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
17
DALCowboys
-
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
15
7
0
0
22
Cowboys
3
0
7
7
17

Spread

SF logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
319
382
Total Plays
54
63
Yards / Play
5.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.13
Passing Yards
192
255
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.15
Rushing Yards
127
127
Rush Attempts
30
23
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
19
26
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
58%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-25.45
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-26
Sack EPA
-1.72
-5.56
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
78
72
Penalty EPA
-9.85
-6.42

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-81
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-8.7
Home QB Adjustment
-2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Value
Ptile
11/17
-2.9
33
11/25
3.0
71
12/01
1.1
58
12/08
-2.1
38
12/15
3.9
78
12/23
2.0
63
12/29
5.9
86
01/05
2.2
66
01/12
2.0
64
01/19
4.5
81
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Value
Ptile
10/13
-3.1
30
10/20
-3.2
29
10/27
1.7
62
11/03
2.2
66
11/10
-5.6
16
11/24
-2.7
34
11/28
0.5
53
12/09
-0.5
46
12/15
-0.2
48
12/22
-1.0
44

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
49ers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
25
15
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
8

EPA

EPA / Play
20
21
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
20
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
4
12
Fumbles / Game
19
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
29
25
Cowboys Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cowboys logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
10
Yards / Game
9
5
Passing Yards / Game
15
14
Rushing Yards / Game
2
7

EPA

EPA / Play
2
18
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
8
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
3
Interceptions / Game
3
1
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
22
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
19
RZ Efficiency
3
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-3
L
W
U
11/25
21
W
W
U
12/01
10
W
W
U
12/08
2
W
L
U
12/15
19
W
W
O
12/23
10
W
L
O
12/29
3
W
W
O
01/05
3
W
P
U
01/12
13
W
W
U
01/19
-6
L
L
P
DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
14
W
W
U
10/27
-1
L
W
O
11/03
4
W
L
U
11/10
-32
L
L
O
11/24
3
W
W
O
11/28
7
W
L
O
12/09
-17
L
L
O
12/15
-1
L
L
O
12/22
1
W
L
U
12/29
-2
L
W
U