SF49ers
5-8
33
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
041
DALCowboys
4-9
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
7
10
9
33
Cowboys
14
3
7
17
41
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
458
291
Total Plays
81
58
Yards / Play
5.7
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.20
Passing Yards
308
204
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.04
Rushing Yards
150
87
Rush Attempts
36
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
15
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
40%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.62
+5.65
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-17
Sack EPA
-6.10
-2.71
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
58
Penalty EPA
--
-8.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-78
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-52.1
Home QB Adjustment
-76.2
Away QB Adjustment
-24.1
Market Regression
-80.5
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-24.1
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-76.2
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
28
Yards / Game
14
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
15
31
EPA
EPA / Play
21
21
EPA / Pass
16
18
EPA / Rush
22
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
7
Interceptions / Game
30
23
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
7
20
Cowboys Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
12
Rushing Yards / Game
17
8
EPA
EPA / Play
24
11
EPA / Pass
25
8
EPA / Rush
18
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
12
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
31
6
Turnover EPA / Game
4
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
3
4th Down Efficiency
22
25
RZ Efficiency
29
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U