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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ cowboys week 19, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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SF logo
SF49ers
10-7
23
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
17
DALCowboys
12-5
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
10
6
7
0
23
Cowboys
0
7
0
10
17

Spread

SF logo
+3

Total

UNDER
51

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
341
307
Total Plays
63
70
Yards / Play
5.4
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
230
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
24/44(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.23
Rushing Yards
169
77
Rush Attempts
38
21
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
46%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.08
-4.27
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-40
Sack EPA
--
-7.30
Penalties
9
14
Penalty Yards
58
89
Penalty EPA
-7.97
-12.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model66.0%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.5%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,696
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+42.3
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
-6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+8.4
Away QB Adjustment
+0.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
115.5
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Value
Ptile
10/31
5.6
86
11/07
-0.2
52
11/15
2.7
73
11/21
-1.4
42
11/28
-3.1
30
12/05
-0.6
48
12/12
-0.8
47
12/19
0.3
55
12/23
-0.8
47
01/09
-0.7
47
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Value
Ptile
11/07
-2.3
36
11/14
6.6
90
11/21
-10.4
4
11/25
6.0
87
12/02
-1.6
41
12/12
-9.7
4
12/19
-0.9
46
12/26
6.8
91
01/02
4.3
81
01/08
9.5
96

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
49ers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
15
8
Yards / Game
11
18
Passing Yards / Game
26
9
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20

EPA

EPA / Play
11
2
EPA / Pass
8
1
EPA / Rush
15
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
30
9
Turnover EPA / Game
19
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
2
4th Down Efficiency
24
25
RZ Efficiency
6
21
Cowboys Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cowboys logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
5
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
7
19
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6

EPA

EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
4
13
EPA / Rush
20
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
24
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
12
15
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
21
4th Down Efficiency
12
5
RZ Efficiency
5
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-14
L
L
O
11/15
21
W
W
U
11/21
20
W
W
U
11/28
8
W
W
O
12/05
-7
L
L
O
12/12
3
W
W
P
12/19
18
W
W
U
12/23
-3
L
L
U
01/02
16
W
W
U
01/09
3
W
W
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-14
L
L
U
11/14
40
W
W
U
11/21
-10
L
L
U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
10
W
W
U
12/12
7
W
W
U
12/19
15
W
W
U
12/26
42
W
W
O
01/02
-3
L
L
U
01/08
25
W
W
O